In an announcement that has taken the financial sector by storm, macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg has made a bold prediction about the cryptocurrency market, specifically Bitcoin. According to Zeberg, the world is on the cusp of witnessing a staggering inflation in Bitcoin’s value, which could see it rocket to a high of anywhere between $115,000 and $150,000. This period of exuberance, he warns, will be short-lived as it precedes a catastrophic macroeconomic collapse, the likes of which could mirror the dismal days that followed the infamous 1929 market crash.
Zeberg’s forecast hinges on a series of key economic indicators and historic patterns. He points to a host of reasons that signal an impending recession in the United States around 2024/2025. Among these, a particular emphasis is placed on the reliability of his Business Cycle model—a model that has remained infallible for the past 80 years, consistently heralding recessions without a single misfire.
Underpinning his analysis is the inverted yield curve, a well-known harbinger of recessionary times. Contrary to the skepticism it met with in 2023, Zeberg reaffirms its track record. He reminds us that typically, from the inception of the yield inversion, it takes 12 to 15 months for a recession to unfold, reinforcing that this marker is far from being outdated.
Looking at the U.S. industrial production, Zeberg draws unnerving parallels to pre-2007-08 crisis conditions, spotting a similar divergence indicative of an imminent significant decline. He doesn’t stop there; the housing market also falls under his gloomy purview. Through the plummeting NAHB index, Zeberg draws a direct correlation between the health of the housing market and rising unemployment rates—a precursor to an economic downturn, exacerbated by climbing interest rates suppressing consumer spending.
His prognosis further explores the surge in personal interest payments pinching consumers, presenting a long-standing cycle where increased market rates lead to higher mortgage and debt repayments, forcing a widespread pullback in consumption and, ultimately, a recession.
The affordability crisis in housing also gets a mention, with Zeberg pointing out the sinking affordability of homes not seen since before the last financial crisis. He couples this with the bleak outlook on unemployment, projecting a surge in defaults and a possible housing market debilitation.
Rounding off his case is the critique of inflated inventory levels among retailers and companies, a hangover from the temporary stimulus-fuelled demand surge in 2021-22. The discrepancy between supply and current demand, according to Zeberg, is a simmering threat to the economic landscape.
Amidst the ominous economic predictions, Bitcoin surfaces as an anomaly—a dazzling blip of euphoria anticipated to balloon before the turmoil ensues. Zeberg provocatively forecasts this surge, even jesting at financial commentator Peter Schiff about the cryptocurrency’s potential value against gold.
However, he cautions that this burst is deceptive, part of the “Soft Landing Narrative” that will lull economists into complacency just before the stock and crypto markets reach their zenith and plunge into recession in the latter part of 2024.
Zeberg’s verdict is decisive: A severe recession is not just possible, but inevitable. The illusion of safety and control seems to have faded, with conventional economic interventions offering little hope. He metaphorically equates the current situation to the Titanic’s collision with an iceberg, predicting an inescapable sinking.
The Bitcoin conundrum remains—as a relatively young entity, not yet tested by a global recession, it’s unclear if it will act as a safe haven or succumb to the forces that dictate the traditional markets.
As the dust settles on Zeberg’s seismic financial prognostication, the current Bitcoin price lingers at $42,392, maintaining its sideways movement, indicative of an uncertain future in the uncharted waters of a volatile financial sea.