Wynn Resort’s UAE Casino Project Boasts Promising Potential, Landmark Tax Breaks

26

Wynn Resorts’ integrated resort in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is set to gain from favorable demographics and a beneficial tax regime, according to analysts at JPMorgan. Al-Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah (RAK), the location of Wynn’s casino resort, is considered a site with promising long-term potential.

In a recent report, analysts led by Joseph Greff indicated that Wynn Al Marjan Island could attract a lucrative clientele. At an investor event in Las Vegas earlier this week, Wynn highlighted that the casino hotel is just a 50-minute drive from Dubai International Airport, positioning it within an eight-hour flight for 96% of the world’s population. Greff and his team further refined this target market, noting that core markets represent approximately 25% of the world’s population, 20% of global GDP, and nearly 20% of the world’s millionaires.


TRUSTED PARTNER ✅ Bitcoin Casino


The Wynn venue, set to be the first regulated casino hotel in the Arab world, is currently under construction and anticipated to open in early 2027. With the UAE’s substantial oil wealth and an increasing number of ultra-high-net-worth citizens, along with Dubai’s status as a playground for the elite, demographics are particularly relevant to Wynn Al Marjan Island. This has led some analysts to draw comparisons between the burgeoning UAE casino market and that of Singapore.

At the investor event, Wynn revealed that the budget for the UAE project has increased to $5.1 billion, with an expected capital contribution of $1.1 billion. Looking ahead, the company projects the UAE casino hotel to generate adjusted property earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $390 million to $570 million, with sales between $1.38 billion and $1.88 billion.

A free cash flow forecast ranging from $170 million to $350 million and an expected return on invested capital of 9.8% to 15.7% align with analyst expectations. Greff commented that these forecasts are not particularly aggressive, and the UAE’s gaming regulatory environment appears to be accommodating. The regulatory framework is favorable, featuring a 10% to 12% tax rate on gross gaming revenue (GGR), a stark contrast to the 40% rate in Macau. Wynn’s operations in Macau operate under a 10-year licensing period, whereas Wynn Al Marjan Island has secured a 15-year permit.

Wynn’s competitor, MGM Resorts International, has expressed interest in bidding for a casino license for a current non-gaming hotel complex in the UAE. However, Wynn Al Marjan is expected to have a significant head start on other potential gaming venues in the region. Analysts believe that the UAE market, likely to be license-constrained and targeted at high-spending luxury consumers, could have characteristics similar to Singapore’s appealing, high-return IR market.

The analyst suggested that long-term estimates of $3 billion to $5 billion for the UAE’s total addressable gaming market might be conservative. The Wynn property is expected to hold a monopoly in the region for at least a couple of years.