Analysts at 10x Research, led by Markus Thielen, have warned that Ether may not be the ideal investment for the anticipated 2025 bull run, predicting it could yield less impressive returns than Bitcoin. Thielen suggests that while unforeseen catalysts might emerge, Ethereum might still struggle to produce significant rallies in the coming year. He believes that, despite Ethereum’s inherent volatility, it remains a lesser medium-term investment, potentially underperforming against Bitcoin once again.
Thielen recommends caution regarding Ethereum, particularly as the number of active validators, a key metric for 2025, recently showed a decline. This trend raises concerns about the risk of validators leaving the network, given Ethereum’s perceived lack of demand beyond staking. He acknowledges opposing views, as others like Attestant’s Tim Lowe suggest that refined marketing could increase Ether’s demand, potentially boosting investor interest.
Ether has underperformed against Bitcoin, with a 46.29% return compared to Bitcoin’s 121.4% increase since January. Despite the launch of Ether ETFs in the US, demand lagged significantly behind Bitcoin ETFs. The US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $35.27 billion in inflows, while Ether ETFs saw $2.66 billion. Thielen argues that the Duncan upgrade, aimed at reducing network gas fees, was mistimed, missing the peak of a meme coin rally, shifting focus to Solana.
Skepticism extends to the upcoming Pectra upgrade in early 2025. Historically, only two of 19 previous upgrades significantly impacted Ethereum’s price, both occurring during Bitcoin bull markets. Thielen suggests Ethereum may continue underperforming Bitcoin in 2025, although some analysts remain uncertain about Ether’s potential trajectory.
Pseudonymous traders Cold Blooded Schiller and Dal speculate on potential outcomes for Ether, ranging from a price breakout to a possible retracement to lower levels. Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, remains optimistic about Ether’s performance relative to Bitcoin in early 2025, predicting a potential breakout. As of now, the ETH/BTC ratio stands at 0.03571, reflecting Ether’s relative strength against Bitcoin.
