New research from a leading gaming intelligence firm suggests the legal sports betting industry in the United States is only just getting started. According to insights from Vixio Regulatory Intelligence, a division of Vixio Gambling Compliance based in Washington, DC, sportsbook revenue is anticipated to surge dramatically over the next four years. The firm projects that revenue will grow from approximately $10.1 billion in 2023 to $24.2 billion by 2028, marking a nearly 140% increase.
The expansion of the market could escalate further if additional states decide to legalize sports betting. Vixio forecasts that the US online sports betting market could be worth between $24.2 billion and $27.8 billion in annual gross revenue by 2028, contingent on legislative developments that align with either their base-case or more optimistic bull-case scenarios.
The US sports betting boom has roots in the Supreme Court’s May 2018 decision to overturn PASPA, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, which had restricted single-game wagering to Nevada since its enactment in 1992. With PASPA overturned, the door was opened for other states to legalize sports betting.
Currently, 38 states and Washington, DC have legal sportsbooks. Missouri may become the 39th state to authorize sports wagering through a ballot referendum scheduled for November 2024. Of the 39 existing jurisdictions, 31, including DC, permit mobile wagering. Vixio’s forecast includes an assumption that there will be 33 online sports betting markets by 2028.
Polling suggests the Missouri sports betting referendum is likely to pass, with Emerson College Polling reporting that 52% of likely voters support the measure, while 25% oppose it, and 23% remain undecided.
Vixio did not speculate on which state might follow Missouri in expanding the online sports betting market. Lawmakers in Georgia, Minnesota, and South Carolina have considered sports betting legislation in recent sessions. However, the largest potential growth could come from California and Texas, the two most populous states, which together boast nearly 70 million residents and have yet to legalize sports gambling.
In addition to sports betting, iGaming, which includes online slots and table games, is currently legal in only seven states: Connecticut, Delaware, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. While Vixio does not foresee significant expansion of the iGaming market to an eighth state by 2028, the firm still anticipates ongoing revenue growth in existing markets. They project the iGaming sector will generate between $18.2 billion and $20.9 billion in gross gaming revenue by 2028, up from nearly $7 billion in 2023.
Should Vixio’s projections materialize, the combined legal online gambling market in the US could be valued at between $38.2 billion and $41.8 billion in the next four years.
