
In the realm of modern warfare, the Ukrainian conflict has ascended to an unprecedented level of drone utilization, altering the dynamics of battle in orphic ways. Both fronts have exploited drones to a remarkable extent, a phenomenon intensified by the prolific production of these machines in China. However, China’s recent clampdown on drone exports has engendered anxieties about the sustainability of the drone supply chain.
The majority of these machines are commercial products, fashioned in China and procured off the shelf, with the demand for fresh supplies fueled by the massive losses endured in combat. Evidence of a dwindling availability of Chinese-made drones and components for both Ukraine and Russia have surfaced, alarming strategists and soldiers alike. The Royal United Services Institute, a respected London-based think tank, estimates Ukraine’s drone losses at around 10,000 units monthly.
A medley of volunteer organizations have played a vital role, channeling donated funds towards replenishing Ukraine’s drone reserves. Commercial drones fly alongside military-spec variants, such as the the Turkish-crafted Bayraktar drones in Ukraine’s arsenal and Russia’s Iranian Shaheds.
A fresh wave of restrictions imposed by Beijing took effect on September’s first day. These include regulations around long-range drones weighing over 4kg and various drone-related equipment, like certain camera and radio modules. Companies specializing in these products must now secure export licenses and furnish end-user certificates, in addition to affirming that commercial Chinese drones are not intended for military applications.
For now, Ukrainian forces attest to minimal disruption of drone availability owing to the Chinese restrictions, particularly the lightweight Mavics crafted by DJI, a Chinese firm. However, concerns mount over the supply of certain components, causing uneasiness about potential future handicaps.
Military observers and strategists have expressed apprehensions concerning the availability of crucial parts, specifically thermal imaging cameras, given the impending shift to longer, colder nights. This shift, they say, could impact warfare strategies and supplies, severely limiting the military’s visuals during nocturnal operations.
The continual procurement of drones for both Ukrainian and Russian forces has been further complicated amidst these difficulties. The largest commercial drone manufacturer globally, DJI, halted direct sales to both nations two months after the outbreak of the full-scale conflict in February 2022. This directive extended to international distributors as well, prohibiting them from supplying DJI products to customers in either country.
Notably impacted by these restrictions is drone supply to Russia, hindering their ability to source these invaluable tools of modern warfare. Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side, volunteers have been tirelessly seeking alternate sources for drones and parts, both domestically and from western countries.
Anatoly Polkovnikov, a volunteer assisting drone procurement, revealed that a local Ukrainian start-up is on the brink of launching its drone motors production, providing a beacon of hope amidst the quandary. Expressing his optimism, Polkovnikov believed that the current restrictions might serve as a catalyst for domestic production over the long term.
The Ukrainian conflict stands as the first instance of an armed conflict that bears the hallmark of such extensive and pervasive drone usage. As parties on both sides grapple with dwindling supplies and fraught trading conditions, their determination to maintain this strategic edge underscores the critical role of drones in this new era of warfare.