In the early stages of the pandemic, as far back as February 2020, it became apparent to Prof Graham Medley, a senior advisor to the government, that the National Health Service (NHS) was on the brink of an overwhelming crisis. High-ranking civil servants, he affirms, were conscious of the looming threat during that crucial period.
The acting government imposed the inaugural national lockdown on March 23, 2020, asserting its commitment to safeguarding human lives and economic stability throughout the health crisis.
There is an anticipation towards the end of this year when key figures such as former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former Health Secretary Matt Hancock will testify to the inquiry.
Professor Medley, an expert in infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, played significant roles both in the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and co-chaired the influential SPI-M-O subgroup, which was tasked with estimating and modelling the spread of the virus.
Testifying to his experiences, he insists that by the tail end of February 2020, the inundation of the NHS with Covid cases was “no secret”. He emphasized that the severity of the epidemic was clear throughout February.
Although official records of Sage meetings did not note heightened anxiety regarding the NHS’s situation, civil servants assigned to document the minutes were fully aware of the scientific consensus within Sage. This knowledge, Medley certifies, went as far to infiltrate the remote meetings of the SPI-M-O subgroup.
Despite the mounting evidence of a disaster in progress, large-scale gatherings were permitted through the initial weeks of March 2020. The nationwide lockdown was not implemented, with a mandatory stay-at-home order, until March 23 that year.
Text exchanges between Mr Johnson, Mr Hancock, and Sir Patrick Vallance from June 2020 were shared during the inquiry. Suspicions were raised about the timing of these concerns, sparking further debate between the gentlemen about transparency and the responsibility of scientists to the public, emphasizing the ongoing tension between free expression and cohesion during a public health crisis.
The second phase of the Covid Inquiry is critically examining political decision-making from January 2020 to February 2022, including the timing and efficacy of lockdowns and other social-distancing impositions. This part of the inquiry involves taking evidence from witnesses in London until the holiday season, after which investigations will move to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland to study the choices made by individual administrations in those UK regions.
