Polymarket users have lowered the odds to 27% that President-elect Donald Trump will approve a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the first 100 days of his administration. This is a significant drop from the initial 60% likelihood estimated following his election. Despite Polymarket’s historical accuracy in predicting major events like the last presidential election, the sentiment among its users has shifted.
However, other prediction markets, like Kalshi, maintain a more optimistic outlook, placing the odds of a Bitcoin reserve being established by January 2026 at 61%. This divergence comes amid ongoing discussions at state levels, with conservative states such as Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania exploring their own strategic Bitcoin reserves. Pennsylvania is considering legislation that would allow the state to invest 10% of its General Fund in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.
Despite these state-level initiatives, the likelihood of Texas passing related legislation by March next year is considered low, with Polymarket estimating a 10% chance and Kalshi 24%.
Advocates for adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, argue that it aligns with financial sensibilities given the growing demand and limited supply of Bitcoin. Proponents highlight the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a means to reduce national debt, currently over $36 trillion. Critics, however, point to Bitcoin’s volatility, limited acceptance, market size, and regulatory issues as barriers. They also underscore that the Federal Reserve is legally barred from holding Bitcoin without a change in law.
Despite these challenges, Trump has voiced support for incorporating Bitcoin into national reserves, with data showing the government already possesses 198,000 coins worth $18 billion, according to BitcoinTreasuries.
