With a tight race predicted in Nevada between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, political observers are focusing on emerging trends that may influence the election outcome. In the final days of campaigning, both candidates are aiming to win over undecided Latino voters, who constitute about a third of Nevada’s population and are pivotal in the battle for the state’s six electoral votes.
Historically, Latinos have leaned Democratic, but Republicans are optimistic about swaying this key demographic given the pressing issues on voters’ minds. David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth Action, highlighted the economic struggles faced by many Latinos, emphasizing that they would likely vote based on financial concerns exacerbated by “Bidenomics.” This sentiment was echoed in an October NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC national poll, which found that 34% of Latino voters identified the cost of living as their top concern, followed by jobs and the economy at 20%.
Trump, often credited more favorably for his handling of the economy, has intensified his outreach to the Latino community. Harris, not to be outdone, campaigned in Nevada alongside entertainer Jennifer Lopez, whose parents are Puerto Rican. At a rally featuring the Mexican pop band Maná, Lopez criticized Trump for dividing people, referencing an offensive joke made about Puerto Rico by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump event in Madison Square Garden. Lopez emphasized that the joke had offended all Latinos, not just Puerto Ricans.
Meanwhile, Nevada has experienced an influx of Californians, with about 150,000 moving into the state over the past four years. This migration could influence the election results, as former Californians now make up roughly 20% of Nevada’s population. Nevada Republican State Senator Jeff Stone, a former California legislator, noted that ex-Californians could sway Nevada red, given their first-hand experiences with Harris’s policies in California.
Joe Dutra, a business owner who relocated his candy company from California to Reno, expressed his preference for Nevada’s business environment, describing it as more supportive compared to California’s regulatory landscape. This sentiment was echoed by Jim DeMartini, a farmer who moved from California to Nevada, criticizing California’s “leftist, anti-business legislature” and blaming Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom for the state’s issues.
Republican consultant Chuck Muth noted that many Californians moved to Nevada to escape policies similar to those promoted by Harris. However, it’s worth noting that NPR reported a significant number of unaffiliated voters in Nevada, with nonpartisan voters outnumbering both Democrats and Republicans, representing four in ten registered voters.
Nationally, recent polls show a close race between Trump and Harris. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released on Monday indicates that Harris holds a slight edge with a 4-point lead over Trump among likely voters. Harris garnered 51% compared to Trump’s 47%, though with a 3.5-point margin of error, the results remain within a tight range. The poll surveyed voters between October 31 and November 2.
