Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to near hurricane strength on Tuesday night, heading directly for the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where it was projected to make landfall as a hurricane.
As of Tuesday, the storm was located 25 miles southeast of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands, having skirted Jamaica with minimal reported damage. Rafael was accelerating with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and moving northwest at 15 mph, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported. The threshold for hurricane-force winds is 74 mph.
The National Hurricane Center predicted “steady to rapid intensification” over the next 24 hours. Rafael was expected to pass over or near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night and make landfall in western Cuba by Wednesday.
“Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the center stated.
The U.S. State Department issued an advisory on Tuesday afternoon for Cuba, providing departure flights to non-essential staff and American citizens, and urging others to “reconsider travel to Cuba due to the potential impact of Tropical Storm Rafael.”
Meanwhile, the Cuban Civil Defense used social media to urge residents to prepare urgently, emphasizing the importance of staying put once the storm hits. Authorities had already ordered the evacuation of 37,000 people in eastern Cuba’s Guantanamo province due to adverse weather conditions.
Hurricane warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, as well as the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and Dry Tortugas. The warning was lifted in Jamaica after the storm passed the island’s western coast. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.
“The storm is currently situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive for strengthening,” the hurricane center noted.
In the Cayman Islands, officials closed schools and government offices, urging residents to prepare. Long queues were reported at grocery stores as Rafael approached.
This storm is particularly challenging for Cuba, which is still reeling from Hurricane Oscar’s impact two weeks ago in the eastern part of the island, resulting in at least six fatalities and coinciding with a significant blackout.
Forecasters warned that Rafael would bring heavy rains to the western Caribbean, potentially causing flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Heavy rainfall was also expected to move northward into Florida and nearby southeastern U.S. regions later in the week. The Hurricane Center forecast storm surges in Florida could reach 1 to 3 feet in Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys. A few tornadoes were also anticipated on Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost parts of mainland Florida.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that the 2024 hurricane season would be significantly above average, with between 17 and 25 named storms. The forecast included up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Typically, an Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
