Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to near hurricane strength on Tuesday night, barreling toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where it was expected to make landfall as a hurricane.
The storm was positioned 25 miles southeast of Little Cayman after skirting past Jamaica with minimal reported damage. Picking up speed, Rafael’s maximum sustained winds reached 70 mph as it moved northwest at 15 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Hurricane-force winds start at 74 mph.
The center projected “steady to rapid intensification” over the next 24 hours, predicting the storm would pass near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night and make landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday.
“Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” the center stated.
On Tuesday afternoon, the U.S. State Department issued a travel advisory for Cuba, recommending departure flights for non-essential staff and American citizens, and advising others to reconsider travel due to the impending impact of Tropical Storm Rafael.
In Cuba, the Civil Defense urged citizens via social media to prepare immediately, stressing the importance of staying put during the storm. Authorities had previously ordered the evacuation of 37,000 people in the province of Guantanamo due to severe weather conditions.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.
A tropical storm warning was issued for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, as well as the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and Dry Tortugas. Jamaica’s warning was lifted after the storm moved past its western coast. A tropical storm watch was in place for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.
“The storm is currently situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive for strengthening,” the hurricane center reported.
In the Cayman Islands, officials closed schools and government offices while urging residents to prepare. Long lines formed at grocery stores as the storm neared.
Rafael’s approach is problematic for Cuba, which is still recovering from Hurricane Oscar that struck two weeks ago in eastern Cuba, causing six fatalities and widespread power outages.
Forecasters warned that Rafael would bring heavy rains across the western Caribbean, potentially causing flooding and mudslides in parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Heavy rainfall was also expected to extend into Florida and nearby areas of the southeastern U.S. later in the week. The Hurricane Center forecasted storm surges in Florida between 1 to 3 feet in Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys. A few tornadoes were anticipated over the Keys and southwestern-most Florida mainland on Wednesday.
Rafael marks the 17th named storm of the season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be well above average, with 17 to 25 named storms, including up to 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season typically produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
