When Thailand’s casino market reaches maturity, it could generate annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) exceeding Singapore, putting the country on pace to become the third-largest gaming jurisdiction in the world. Citi analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri, and Timothy Chau recently reported that upon full ramp-up, Thailand’s casino market could potentially yield yearly GGR of $9.1 billion. This figure would position Thailand ahead of Singapore on the global list, trailing only Macau and Las Vegas. While Thailand has yet to officially approve integrated resorts, policymakers are actively working to expedite related legislation.
Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat recently reiterated the Thai government’s intent to present a revised draft law to the cabinet by the end of 2024. Once the council of state approves the bill, the race for casino licenses in Thailand is expected to quickly commence. The $9.1 billion GGR forecast assumes that Thailand will initially approve at least five gaming permits, with two located in Bangkok and one each in Pattaya, Phuket, and Chiang Mai.
Should Thailand meet or exceed this forecast and secure the third position among global casino markets, it would be a significant achievement, especially considering the country currently has no regulated gaming venues. However, comparisons with Singapore might be seen as ambitious stretches. Singapore hosts only two integrated resorts—Las Vegas Sands’ Marina Bay Sands and Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa. These two operators enjoy duopoly protection, which spans the next three decades, with Singapore showing no inclination to permit additional casinos.
Thus, if Thailand launches its casino market with four or five venues, it stands to reason the country could quickly surpass Singapore in GGR simply by having more operational casinos. In 2023, Singapore recorded $5.11 billion in GGR, marking its best performance since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa are two of the most profitable integrated resorts globally.
Thailand presents a compelling opportunity for casino operators, buoyed by the nation’s prominence in Southeast Asia tourism and favorable proposed regulations aimed at attracting major gaming firms. Analysts suggest that Thailand’s efficient approach parallels that of Singapore two decades ago, making it feasible for the first casino hotels in Thailand to open within five or six years. Additionally, the planned gaming tax rate of 17% is seen as advantageous for operators’ profitability.
Given the lower gaming tax rate of 17% and reduced operating expenses—such as wages and utilities—analysts believe the EBITDA margin could reach 40% to 50%. This projection implies that Thailand’s casino industry could witness annual EBITDA of approximately $4.1 billion.
