Taylor Swift has thrown her support behind Vice President Kamala Harris for the presidency, causing a significant spike in voter registration. On Tuesday night, Swift took to her social media platforms, where she commands an audience of 574 million, urging her followers to vote for Harris in the upcoming election. This endorsement, dubbed the ‘Swift Effect,’ led to a 400% to 500% increase in traffic on Vote.org, the official voter registration website, according to Tom Bonier, a senior advisor at TargetSmart, a Washington, DC-based campaign consultancy.
Following Swift’s call to action, Vote.org experienced an unprecedented surge, with around 9,000 to 10,000 people visiting the site per hour. The spike came on the heels of the first and likely only debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump. Voter interest surged as many who were previously undecided seemed galvanized by the debate and Swift’s endorsement.
Kamala Harris, who is currently the betting front-runner for the 2024 election, is seeing her implied odds sit between 50% and 56%. The influx of new voter registrations suggests that Swift’s influence could play a crucial role in her candidacy. Bonier noted that historical data supports a high turnout rate among late registrants, with over 80% of those who registered close to the 2020 Election Day casting their ballots.
Trump, reacting to Swift’s endorsement of his opponent, dismissed the pop star’s influence, labeling her as “a very liberal person” who consistently supports Democratic candidates. He hinted that her political stance might hurt her in the marketplace, while expressing his preference for Brittany Mahomes, wife of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has openly supported Trump. Swift, on the other hand, is currently dating Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
The 2020 election saw an unprecedented voter turnout, with over 158.4 million votes cast, a 16% increase from the 136.7 million votes in the 2016 election. The 2016 election itself surpassed the previous record of 131.4 million votes in 2008, when Barack Obama was elected to his first term. The surge in voter registration driven by Swift’s endorsement could signal a similar, if not greater, turnout for the 2024 election. Historically, high voter turnout has not favored Republican candidates, a trend that may explain the recent dip in Trump’s implied odds of winning, which have fallen below 47% on political wagering exchange Smarkets.
