President Joe Biden’s prospects for retaining the Oval Office in the 2024 elections have taken a sharp blow following revelations from the U.S. Justice Department’s Special Counsel’s Office. The department’s penetrating investigation, spearheaded by Robert Hur, yielded a report that cast a significant pall over Biden’s public image and campaign forecasts.
Robert Hur, whose credentials include serving as a U.S. attorney, was tasked as the special counsel to probe into the potential mishandling of classified documents by President Biden. The inquiry delved into the presence of sensitive government papers at Biden’s Delaware residence, which came to light in November 2022. These files were held in private hands following Biden’s tenure as vice president, which concluded in January 2017.
The crux of Hur’s findings lay in the determination that, although there was clear evidence of Biden’s willful retention and dissemination of classified documents after his vice-presidential term, criminal charges were not deemed necessary. The documents in question were tied to significant military operations and foreign policy decisions, specifically concerning Afghanistan. Hur articulated that despite the apparent misconduct, the lack of conclusive evidence precluding ‘innocent explanations’ and the notion of jury sympathy towards Biden’s advanced age and poor memory would make legal proceedings challenging.
The notion of a court sympathetic to “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” as Hur described Biden, seemed to permeate the report, suggesting that the president’s advanced years could have played a role in the situation.
Amidst these troubling assertions, President Biden will not face the courtroom ordeal that his predecessor Donald Trump did, regarding the latter’s retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Yet, the Hur report’s findings still cast an uncomfortable shadow on Biden’s public standing and forthcoming electoral campaign.
Betting markets were quick to react to the Special Counsel’s disclosure. Before the report’s publication, President Biden’s implied probability of a victorious re-election bid stood at approximately 36%. Subsequent to this jarring revelation, his odds plummeted, leaving him with a scant 25% chance, as per Smarkets— a figure that has since seen a minor rebound to 29%. It bears noting that Donald Trump leads the betting markets with an estimated 46% likelihood of success.
The release of the report incited a visceral response from President Biden, who took umbrage at the Special Counsel during an impromptu press conference, vehemently questioning the audacity of Hur in referencing his late son, Beau Biden. This reaction was juxtaposed with reports from NBC News alleging that it was, in fact, Biden himself who introduced the subject of his son during discussions with the Justice Department.
With President Biden now at 81 years old, speculation has been swirling about potential successors should the veteran politician opt to forgo a reelection bid. Ambitious figures such as former First Lady Michelle Obama and California Governor Gavin Newsom are currently among the Democratic frontrunners, with betting markets attributing them implied chances of 8% and 5% respectively.
