Kevin O’Leary, the prominent businessman and serial entrepreneur famed for his tenure on “Shark Tank” as “Mr. Wonderful,” recently shared provocative insights on Fox Business regarding political forecasting. During a conversation with Stuart Varney, O’Leary, 70, expressed his belief that bettors offer a more precise gauge of a political race’s outcome than traditional pollsters.
In the interview, O’Leary asserted, “I’d rather go with the Vegas bettors in terms of looking at election results. They’re better than the pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history.” However, it’s worth noting that Nevada’s sportsbooks are not permitted to accept bets on election outcomes, nor are such wagers allowed in any U.S. state with legal sports betting. Despite this, political betting thrives in the U.K., Europe, and parts of O’Leary’s native Canada, including Ontario, facilitated by online platforms that allow peer-to-peer election outcome shares.
O’Leary pointed out that betting markets had accurately called the 2016 U.S. presidential election, where Donald Trump’s victory was a surprise to many pollsters who had favored Hillary Clinton. These markets also correctly forecasted Joe Biden’s triumph over Trump nearly four years ago. Presently, Polymarket, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange, lists Kamala Harris with a 52% implied chance of becoming the 47th president, juxtaposed with Trump’s 46%.
Traditional U.K. bookmakers mirror these odds, positioning Harris as the current front-runner with odds of 4/5 (-120). In contrast, Trump, who once led the odds before President Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race, now stands at even money. Robert Kennedy, Jr. remains a distant third at 100/1.
While O’Leary sees potential in the betting markets’ insights, he emphasized that it’s too early to predict a conclusive outcome. “I don’t think anybody can call this race right now. We’ve got to get into the policy wars and hopefully the debate wars,” he remarked. Reflecting on past debates, O’Leary reminisced, “I want to remind you that back when Trump was debating Clinton, there was a Sunday when the football games were on and I found myself watching the debate and being more entertained than football. I think the potential of a Harris-Trump debate is going to be great television.”
