The recent heavy damage sustained by a grain warehouse in Odesa is just one of many incidents in a series of Russian drone attacks that have significantly escalated in recent weeks. Ukraine’s River Danube ports, a critical economic lifeline for the nation, are the main targets of these nightly assaults.
With each dawn, reports of newly inflicted carnage on grain storage facilities and essential port infrastructure around the inland ports of Reni and Izmail become more frequent. Despite Ukraine being a global staple in the grain supply chain, the ongoing conflict has greatly hampered the nation’s output.
Regional governor Oleg Kiper relayed that on one recent Thursday night, 14 Russian Shahed drones were demolished over the Odesa region, inclusive of the Danube ports. However, a significant number of drones continue to breach defenses and inflict great damage.
Denys Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, highlighted the consequences of these relentless attacks, stating, “More than 270,000 tonnes of grain has been obliterated during these attacks along with the key infrastructures where grain destined for international markets is housed.”
In an appeal for help during a recent phone call with the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed the need for aid to bolster the air defense of the Odesa region.
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-July, arguing that the agreement marginalized Russia’s agricultural exporters. This initiative had been established to provide safe passage to ships transporting grain to global venues. Since Russia’s withdrawal, only few vessels, not containing any grain, have successfully departed from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. As a result, the Danube route’s importance has risen exponentially.
While the Danube may be theoretically safer, it has been underscored by the continued attacks on boats coming from the river into the Black Sea environment and directly entering Romanian territories. Many aim for the Romanian port of Costanta, intending to proceed with transportation.
Marchuk believes the motivation behind Russia’s engagement is clear- “With a decrease in exports from Ukraine, new foreign markets could potentially open for Russia. They aim to capture those markets that Ukraine will no longer be able to cater to.”
Even under the imminent threat of Russian raids, grain loading persists at Reni and Izmail. However, the rising insurance costs and hesitant shipping companies add obstacles to the process.
Despite these challenges, Ukraine managed to increase its exports in August, reaching 2.5 million tonnes. But, with shipping expenses mounting, it may become less profitable for Ukraine’s farmers. Marchuk warns that predicting future scenarios is impossible, considering the attack’s heightened intensity.
As the pressure mounts, he, too, reiterates the call for international aid, expressing his hope that Russia will be unable to sustain these assaults and that with foreign assistance, they’ll be able to defend the port infrastructure.
While the Black Sea Grain Initiative remains sidelined, even after Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s attempts to coax Vladimir Putin to reconsider, the Danube pathway remains the most prominent alternative. Other modes of export, including road and rail, are less efficient and face the same attacks.
The geopolitical ripples of the situation are significant, as the River Danube establishes part of Ukraine’s boundary with Nato. With Romanian territories located across the Izmail port, at least one Russian drone explosion has been documented on their side of the river.
Despite initial denials, Romania eventually conceded that fragments of the Russian drone had indeed landed on their side. Amid strong condemnation of Russia’s attacks on Danube facilities, the government in Bucharest does not wish to excessively escalate the situation. Their reluctance to invoke Article 5, Nato’s collective defense principle, over a drone fragment is evidence of this diplomatic tightrope.
