Presidents Joe Biden Odds of Reelection Lengthen after Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan


Seven months after taking office, President Joe Biden is in his greatest political challenge. The 46th president of the United States is under scrutiny over the recent withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the quick takeover by Taliban fighters.

For almost two decades, the Afghanistan government has been supported by US troops. The Taliban initially ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, after September 2001 attack in the US.

The odds of Biden winning the 2021 presidential election have lengthened after the Taliban taking over. At Smarkets, Biden’s odds of reelection have dropped from 24.4 percent to 21.7 percent. Vice President Kamala Harris’s chance of winning the 2024 election dropped from 20 percent to 13 percent.

Taliban arose in 1994 after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan in 1989. The group is known for its brutal punishments including floggings, mass executions, and amputations.

During its previous rule, women were not allowed to work. Girls could not attend school and were only permitted outside their homes when in a company of a male relative.

The chaos in Afganistan and mounting concerns regarding the delta variants diminishes Biden’s popularity. Indeed Biden’s approval rating is behind most recent presidents at this stage of their tenure.

“For a sitting president to be given only a 21 percent chance of reelection by Smarkets traders is staggeringly low.”

According to Matthew Shaddick, the head of political markets at Smarkets, the current president and vice president could further face fall, given the administration is already facing foreign policy problems.


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