Polish citizens are set to cast their votes in the upcoming elections, referred to by the opposition leader, Donald Tusk, as “the most important election since the fall of communism in 1989.”
The right-wing United Right Coalition, steered by the Law and Justice Party, is vying to retain power for a consecutive third term, a feat unseen in Poland since 1989. Engagement in an intense election campaign has created a taut division between the center and the right, ahead of the October 15 voting for the Sejm and the Senate.
Known for their firm support towards Ukraine amidst Russia’s invasion, Poland has, however, exhibited tensions with Ukraine during the campaign over the grain ban. Simultaneously, Poland’s strained relations with the EU are not obscure, with the nation adopting a contentious attitude towards the EU and allegations made against undermining democratic norms.
The Law and Justice Party, currently heading the Government since 2015, is leading in the polls, although it is speculated that they may encounter difficulties in forming a coalition to secure an outright majority. Opposition leader Donald Tusk’s party, the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), may struggle to form alliances with two other moderate parties, Third Way, and The Left.
“This is a sign of Poland’s rebirth,” this was the claim made by Tusk to his supporters in the run-up to the vote. The former Prime Minister of Poland and past president of the European Council found himself accused of indulging in Brussels and Berlin directives, particularly on the migrant issue, by incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
Migration, indeed, plays a pivotal role in this election. The ruling Law and Justice Party has amplified anti-migrant rhetoric, warning of forced Muslim migrants in the Roman Catholic-dominated country and refusing to accept asylees entering the EU through other nations. The opposition, however, accuses the ruling party of hypocrisy, stating that it has witnessed the largest wave of immigration in contemporary times under their rule.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine significantly impacts the election discourse, with Poland being a crucial weapons supplier to Ukraine, albeit tensions over grain exports. However, recent announcements indicate no further weapons supply, shifting focus on replenishing its own weapon stocks.
Amidst the political contention, social aspects also weigh in, with the Law and Justice party emphasizing Catholic family values, instating increased child support payments, raising minimum wage, and providing free prescription medicines for the young and old. However, public ire has been brewing following the tightening of abortion laws in 2020 and allegations made of politicizing the judiciary.
Notably, the election outcome could significantly shape Poland’s future relations with the EU. Concerns surrounding the possibility of Poland’s exit from the EU under the Law and Justice’s guidance are also rife, although the ruling party dispels such warnings.
Aside from choosing the government, the Polish citizens also have a referendum to vote on, composed of four questions, purportedly designed for a negative response, which includes questions on privatizing state companies, raising retirement age, dismantling the fence with Belarus, and accepting more immigrants from other EU nations. Nonetheless, the opposition calls for a boycott claiming the questions carry a biased tone.
