In a dramatic turn of events, Poland’s power balance has swayed towards the liberal-leaning Civic Coalition party helmed by Donald Tusk, thereby potentially halting the eight-year rule of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
When over 99% of the votes had been counted, PiS appeared to be leading with 35.64%, followed by the Civic Coalition Party garnering 30.48%. However, the prevailing political landscape favors Tusk allowing him to build a broad coalition, which could conceivably wrest political control from PiS.
After eight years of PiS rule, the final election verdict would mean a departure for Kaczynski. The National Electoral Commission is scheduled to present the conclusive results on Tuesday, and PiS, albeit emerging as the victors, would fail to secure enough seats – 231 – to form a Sejm majority parliament.
An exit poll report published on Monday conveyed that an alignment with the far-right Confederation would still leave the socially conservative PiS 20 seats below the prescribed number. “This is the end of the bad times, this is the end of the PiS government,” proclaimed Tusk on Sunday night.
This was perceived as a crucial election, a “last chance” to safeguard democracy according to the opposition. The National Election Commission reported a turnout of about 74%, the highest since the overthrow of communism in 1989.
“Poland won, democracy has won,” said 66-year-old Tusk to an exuberant crowd gathered in Warsaw. He aims to form a coalition with the centre-right Third Way, which saw around 14.4% support, and the New Left which got around 8.5%. With this partnership, they are expected to comfortably gain a majority with 249 seats in the 460-seat parliament.
Expectations of a new government led to Poland’s stock market surging by over 6% and the Zloty, the national currency, increasing in value.
On Sunday night, after the exit poll was released, wary Kaczynski forewarned his supporters of the uncertainties lying ahead for the PiS party.
Observers reported that all parties had the freedom to campaign prior to the vote. Still, they noted a visible advantage for the PiS as a result of biased state media coverage and misuse of public resources.
Despite the closing of polls at 21:00 on Sunday, eager voters remained in queues throughout the night in cities such as Warsaw and Krakow, and till the early dawn in Wroclaw.
PiS came into power in 2015, accentuating Catholic family values, enhancing the minimum wage, and raising child and pensioner support. It imposed a near-total ban on abortion in 2021 and faced criticism for politicizing the judiciary by appointing biased judges.
Tusk has pledged to rebuild EU relations and access €36bn in frozen EU Covid recovery funds, which has been pending due to disputes over PiS’ judicial reform. Meanwhile, he has vowed to liberalize the abortion laws.
The next Polish government may not be formed before December, as per the PiS ally President Andrzej Duda. Relying on tradition, he stated the first opportunity to form a coalition would be given to the victorious party. If the PiS candidate assigned by the president fails the parliament confidence vote, the Sejm would assign another candidate to attempt to form a coalition.
Early discussions amongst Tusk and his allies could commence this week, even with the expectation of several weeks’ wait to form a coalition.
