On Sunday night, the streets of Warsaw came alive with anticipation, echoing with the joyous reception for Donald Tusk, amidst whispers of a political shift. The right-leaning populist Law and Justice party, commonly known as PiS, seems to lead the pack in the general election according to exit polls. However, their projected grip on power, signified by securing 36.6% of the vote, does not assure them a third term in office.
According to the Ipsos poll, the centrist opposition follows closely behind with 31% of the vote, hinting at the possibility of Tusk’s Civic Coalition forming a coalition government, thereby ending the PiS’s eight-year reign under Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
While the preliminary poll results suggest a leading position for the PiS, these results primarily represent the party’s strongholds, i.e., rural areas and smaller towns. A subsequent poll conducted on Monday morning corroborated the Sunday evening predictions.
Addressing a crowd of supporters in what resembled a victory rally, a jubilant 66-year-old Tusk proclaimed, “Poland won, democracy has won… This is the end of the PiS government.” His words were met with earth-shaking cheers and chants of his name while the Ipsos poll results flashed on the large screens.
The election demonstrated an impressive turnout of 72.9% – the highest since communism’s end in 1989. Polling stations in key cities such as Warsaw and Krakow remained crowded well past their closing times. Younger demographics played a crucial role in this scenario, with a larger turnout from the 18-29 age group compared to individuals over the age of 60.
However, in spite of the robust support, PiS appears to be short of the 231 seats required to form a majority in the 460-member Sejm, or Parliament, according to the later poll results. It is poised to command 198 seats, a noticeable dip from its previous strength.
PiS’s anticipated coalition partner, the Confederation party, admitted to a disappointing performance, with a predicted hold of only 14 seats.
Throughout the campaign, Kaczynski positioned Tusk as a puppet of Berlin and Brussels, while promising to uphold his party’s robust anti-immigration policies. Meanwhile, Tusk vocalized the election’s significance in shaping Poland’s future European Union relations, vowing to resolve the impasse which resulted in a freeze of €36bn Covid pandemic recovery funds allocated by the EU. He ascribed this stalemate to controversial PiS judicial reforms which filled top court positions with PiS-sympathetic judges.
The election’s results will decide the future political coalition in Poland, with possible alliances between Tusk’s Civic Coalition, the centre-right Third Way, and left-wing Lewica.
It was evident that the PiS’s base was somewhat demoralized as Kaczynski rallied with hopeful words about the party’s future, regardless of the election’s outcome. “We will implement this project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed,” he promised.
As polls closed, queues outside polling stations stretched long and far. Voters carried an air of anticipation mixed with anxiety regarding the election’s outcome and its implications on Poland’s future. One crucial issue on many minds is Poland’s support for Ukraine amidst Russian aggression, a point unlikely to change even after the elections.
Interestingly, the voting process saw participation from over 600,000 expatriates registered to vote, reflecting the global interest in this critical election. Voters’ concerns included a gamut of issues, from immigration and retirement age to more controversial subjects such as liberalising abortion laws banned in 2021.
In the event of PiS’s failure to win a vote of trust, Parliament would appoint a new Prime Minister, relegating PiS to a caretaker government role possibly until December.
Despite the political turbulence, this election symbolizes Poland’s vibrant democracy and commitment to a fair political process, showing that every vote cast plays a crucial role in shaping the country’s future.
