The political landscape in Poland stands delicately poised as citizens brace for an election described by opposition leader Donald Tusk as the “most crucial since the fall of communism in 1989”. The right-wing authoritarian United Right coalition spearheaded by the Law and Justice party is vying for an historic third term in power, a feat unseen since the transformative year of 1989.
An obscured veil of acrimony has shrouded the election campaign, tightening the race between the right and centrist ideologies in the run-up to the critical Sejm (lower house of parliament) and Senate vote on October 15th.
Poland’s steadfast backing of Ukraine amidst Russia’s invasive actions had, until now, been a firmly unwavering constant. However, the recent campaign has seen this relationship strain under the Polish ban on Ukrainian grain. Poland’s increasingly combative stance towards the European Union has further complicated matters, stirring accusations of democratic undermining. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, however, has rebuffed these allegations, asserting his nation’s self-reliance and defiance towards any external dictation.
Which parties are jostling in the electoral ring?
The ruling front-runner, Law and Justice, helmed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, remains competitive in the polls but faces an uphill battle to form a coalition that may clinch an outright majority.
Donald Tusk, leading the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), has struggled to forge unity with two other moderate parties, the Third Way and The Left. Despite this, he radiates confident anticipation, declaring to scores of supporters, “A big change is coming. This is a sign of Poland’s rebirth.”
Migration has emerged as a contentious issue on the electoral battlefield. Law and Justice have amplified their anti-migrant discourse, arguing that the EU and opposition forces intend to bring an inflow of Muslim migrants into the predominately Roman Catholic nation. The opposition, meanwhile, alleges the ruling party’s duplicity, pointing to the significant surge of immigration during their tenure. Additional concerns in the campaign include Poland’s support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and the potential role in the election of the far-right Confederation party.
Pivotal to the identity of the Law and Justice party is its deep-rooted social conservative leaning. The potential influence of the party’s proverbial carrot – a 60% hike in child support payments to 800 Zloty (£150) monthly for their primarily Catholic voter base – should not be underestimated.
However, it has not all been smooth sailing for the ruling party. It has incurred backlash over the stringent 2020 abortion laws and allegations of politically commandeering the judiciary by nominating and installing compliant judges in the Constitutional Tribunal and Supreme Court.
As polls grow ever closer, Tusk has vowed to undo the contentious judicial changes immediately if he ascends to power, adding that under the current Law and Justice party’s strategies, Poland’s alliance with the European Union may reach a point of no return.
In addition to electing their next government, Poles are posed with four questions in a referendum seemingly crafted to coax greater voter turnout. However, opposition groups argue these questions are composed with inherent bias and counsel voters to shun the referendum.
The outcome of this election could significantly shape Poland’s future relationship with the EU. Whether these proposed changes come to fruition rests on the shoulders of Poland’s citizens as they step up to the voting booths.
