Peak Of The 4th Wave Likely To Cause 1500 Hospitalizations, Forecast Warns


New infections in Alberta might reach 6000 each day by the start of October, a non-government group forecast says.

This projection is constituted in a report by B.C COVID-19 Modeling Group, a project initiated by a number of academics in epidemiology, data science and mathematic fields.

The most recent report, which came out last Wednesday, says that given relaxed guidelines and stagnating immunization rates, the fourth wave whose key driver is the delta variant, might result in 6000 infections each day in the next one month, with about 1500 hospitalizations and approximately 500 in ICU.

The report presents a number of scenarios including one where there is no intervention and where health authorities raise the immunization rate and health measures are brought back.

An update posted in September shows that guidelines and an increase immunization rate might result in approximately 3000 infections in early October, with about 1200 hospitalized and 250 under intensive car.

So far, 70 percent of Albertans have received both jabs.

Some hospitals in Alberta are having a difficult time due to staffing issues. There are about 44 beds in the ICU department out 200 towards the end of August, Health services said. Approximately 44 percent of bed capacity has been allotted to COVID-19 patients.

Experts say non-immunization measures are required to help protect members of the public while authorities work to raise immunization rates. Air filters, physical distancing and masking are some of the measures that have been proposed.


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