Back in late September, Casino.org interviewed Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello on early season NFL wagering, with sportsbooks generally feeling jubilant with all the upsets through Week 3.
Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations, called it a “weird” start to the NFL betting season, but he also mentioned that things would eventually stabilize. And stabilize they have.
As the NFL season reaches its halfway point, several intriguing betting trends have emerged. Among the notable storylines are the Kansas City Chiefs’ continued dominance with an 8-0 record, the surprising success of the Washington Commanders as underdogs at 7-2, Lamar Jackson’s MVP-caliber performance for the Ravens, and the Detroit Lions’ steady leadership in both the NFC and the North Division with a 7-1 record. Conversely, the San Francisco 49ers have underperformed, sitting at 4-4.
Casino.org conducted a survey of the trader landscape to glean insights as the NFL betting juggernaut enters Week 10. Christian Cipollini, BetMGM’s Trading Manager, reported a 13% year-over-year growth in NFL betting interest at the midseason mark. Cipollini noted that bettors have shown a strong preference for scoring, with the “anytime touchdown scorer” prop bet being the most popular, featuring Derrick Henry as the most bet player. “The Lions continue to be our worst outcome, running at a league-best 7-1 against the spread. Needless to say, we’re rooting hard against the Lions as we start the second half of the season,” he added.
Year-over-year increases in both U.S. and Canadian wagering for BetMGM have been highlighted by a 31% rise in women betting on the NFL and a 76% increase in first touchdown bets, buoyed by BetMGM’s Second Chance promotion. The Bills-Jets Monday night game in Week 6, a wild clash marked by an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary TD at the half and ultimately a 23-20 Bills victory, was the most bet game.
According to Oliver Vickers, a UK-based trader with 888 Sport, “The week commencing 14th October matches saw significant losses across all brands, one of the biggest ever payouts seen across the industry. One customer won $75k from a total points accumulator or parlay. Receiving yards is gaining traction as a bet builder market outside the usual main lines. Canada is our highest turnover country for American football.”
At PointsBet Canada, a spokesperson from their trader team remarked, “The public has been dominant at picking winners straight up, likely due to a higher number of favorites winning compared to previous seasons. There’s more interest in same game parlays this year. And Josh Allen for MVP has been the most popular future throughout the season.”
Josh Allen’s MVP candidacy is unsurprising, given the Bills’ 7-2 start and Allen’s impressive stats: a 105.8 passer rating, just two interceptions, 17 touchdowns, and 2,001 passing yards.
Neil Gibson, a trader with BetVictor, commented, “Nine weeks in, and the four most popular teams for spread parlays among winning punters have been the improving Commanders, the all-firing Lions, the ever-popular Mahomes-led Chiefs, and the surprisingly strong Vikings. Combined, they are 25-7 versus the spread. Conversely, the Cowboys, Dolphins, Jets, and Texans, despite leading their division, are combining at 10-23 versus the spread and have been good results for us.”
Additional highlights from Gibson included the popularity of ante post (futures) betting, particularly on teams like the Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chiefs, and Lions. The 49ers’ performance in the NFC West remains pivotal for many betting firms. Despite an underwhelming start, the Eagles are the most popular team in the NFC Conference, with punters expecting them to emerge as main contenders alongside the Lions and the banged-up 49ers. The Vikings were also popular early in the season.
In the AFC, the Chiefs and Josh Allen’s Bills have been prime bets, with early cash on Rodgers and the Jets. The Chiefs are the most bet team for the Super Bowl, followed by the Lions, Bengals, and Packers. Kevin O’Connell is favored for Coach of the Year, with Dan Campbell of the Lions also drawing significant bets. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are the most popular picks for Regular Season MVP.
The betting landscape has been active through nine weeks, with Week 6 standing out as a highlight for punters, where 12 of 13 favorites won, with only Tennessee’s loss to the Colts preventing a total wipeout.
