Nevada Poll Tracker Swings Prediction in Favor of Trump Over Harris

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Nevada is now seen as slightly backing former President Donald Trump in next month’s presidential election, according to a poll tracker from RealClearPolitics reported this weekend. Trump edges out Vice President Kamala Harris by 48.2% to 48%. Previously, RealClearPolitics put Harris as the victor in Nevada. With this flip in Nevada, Trump is projected to not only win Nevada but also secure the presidency, with Trump predicted to win 302 Electoral College votes. Harris is predicted to secure 236 Electoral College votes.

The shift for Trump in Nevada follows a Wall Street Journal poll conducted between September 28 and October 10, showing Trump leading Harris 49% to 43%. When only including Trump and Harris, Trump held a 6-point lead. Including third-party candidates, Trump was 5 points ahead. This poll, conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO, questioned 600 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


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Contrasting perspectives, Newsweek reported that the Silver Bulletin, from pollster Nate Silver, showed Harris with a 1.5-point lead in Nevada. Additionally, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average recently reported the race as much closer, with Harris leading Trump by 0.5 points. Last week, a poll released by Emerson College, KLAS TV in Las Vegas, and The Hill showed Harris favored by 48.1% of those questioned, with Trump close behind at 47.3%. The poll found that 0.9% of respondents support neither leading candidate, while 2.7% remain undecided. The Emerson College poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%, making the race too close to call.

Among Nevada and other swing states, Trump is ahead of Harris among Catholic voters, according to a National Catholic Reporter poll released on Monday. In these states, 50% of Catholics support Trump, while 45% back Harris. The poll surveyed 1,172 Catholic voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between October 3 and 8, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.86%. The Las Vegas area alone has an estimated 800,000 Catholic residents.

In the realm of betting odds, Casino.org reported last week that they also continue to shift in Trump’s favor. Trump is now the front-runner with implied odds of 53%, while Harris has become the underdog with an implied winning chance of below 47%. These percentages were reported by Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer wagering platform. Other betting pools also favor Trump; Ladbrokes has Trump at 5/6 for implied odds of 54.5%, while Harris is at even money for implied odds of 50%. Paddy Power lists Trump at 10/11 for implied odds of 52.3%, with Harris at even money. William Hill has both Trump and Harris each at -110.