While maintaining an 81% approval rate would be considered stellar in certain circumstances – take for instance, earning an A- academic grade at distinguished McMaster University – this same percentage can bear a different significance in the complex world of politics. When heading a party at the federal level, this implies that almost one fifth of party members harbour doubt about your leadership.
Over the weekend, it was reported that 81% of NDP delegates voted against initiating a leadership challenge. For Jagmeet Singh, this signifies the weakest level of support for an NDP leader since the contentious 2016 convention which saw over half of the party delegates voting to overthrow Thomas Mulcair.
Karl Bélanger, current president of Traxxion Strategies and a onetime senior advisor to Mulcair, was taken aback. He had expected Singh to land closer to the 90% mark in approval rating. Despite this rather lukewarm support, Bélanger maintains that it’s unlikely that this review will trigger calls for Singh’s resignation. However, it sends a clear message that Singh’s leadership may be left hanging by a thread.
Singh has a probable final chance to prove himself, likely before the fall of 2025. A significant surge in the number of federal seats held by his party, which currently stands at 25, is imperative.
Ever since the sweeping victory in Quebec in 2011 – a noteworthy movement known as the “Orange Wave” that propelled the Layton-led NDP to 103 seats and Official Opposition status – NDP’s aspiration to govern has been dwindling.
During the convention, Singh acknowledged the strong mandate of 81% support but concurrently recognized the need for amelioration. He conveyed a quintessential New Democrat message, which is always to yearn for more. Singh reassured his supporters that he would capitalize on his agreement with the Liberals to exert necessary pressure for progress and improvements.
However, NDP delegates harbour concerns over the perceived stagnated progress in what seems to be a last-minute rush to pass pharmacare legislation by the Liberals, particularly before the agreed-upon deadline at the end of December.
Singh expressed his own frustrations during the convention, acknowledging that while the agreement has critics, he himself has had dissatisfactions in working together with Prime Minister Trudeau. Despite it being the first federal agreement of its kind between the two parties, echoes of the past linger as not all collaborations with the Liberals have been beneficial for the NDP.
The 1974 election resulting in a majority government win for Pierre Trudeau’s Liberals, despite NDP leader David Lewis supporting Trudeau’s minority government in 1972, serves as a reminder and a concern for some NDP members about the current deal with the Liberals.
While there’s visible discontent over the slow pace of progress, Monk also highlights the significant challenges and historic reforms the party is currently pushing for, including groundbreaking laws, policies, and new programs.
The road ahead for Singh seems fraught with internal party opposition, as delegates have backed an emergency resolution designed to ramp up pressure on the Liberals regarding a national prescription drug program.
Although the convention votes are non-binding, and Singh and his caucus retain the ultimate decision-making power, walking the delicate line between asserting leadership and responding to grassroots members’ concerns remains a challenge. As recent polls suggest, the NDP and Liberals’ struggle for dominance is being overshadowed by the upsurge of the Conservatives.
