Amidst a sea of anticipation, the dissolved Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox has finally set a date to commence the refund of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash to its impacted clients, a process set to start as soon as this week.
This long-anticipated news has sparked a ripple of worry within the confines of the cryptocurrency realm. Primarily, there are fears about the possible downturn these refunded customers could have on the Bitcoin market through increased selling pressure. However, specialists in the field maintain their confidence in the market to endure a likely Mt. Gox fire sale.
While some observers harbor fears of potential Bitcoin losses, the consensus among experts is that this Mt. Gox-infused surge would most probably be momentary and manageable.
With his eye on the future, Lennix Lai, the Chief Commercial Officer of OKX Bitcoin exchange, hearkens back to the past. Lai asserts that the Mt. Gox early adopters are deeply entrenched Bitcoin enthusiasts, unlikely to hastily liquefy their entire Bitcoin holdings. In making such a statement, Lai draws parallels to past sell-offs that were propelled by legal actions but did not drastically plummet the cryptocurrency prices.
A similar line of reason is supported by experts like Jacob Joseph, a research analyst at CCData. Joseph postulates that the cryptocurrency markets possess the requisite liquidity to handle any large-scale sell-off. To substantiate his assertion, Joseph proposes that a fraction of the Mt. Gox creditors would prefer to adopt an early settlement deal by accepting a 10% reduction in their holdings, a measure that could dampen the potential selling pressure.
In a show of resilience, Alex Thorn, the Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, opines that the actual number of coins to be disbursed will be far less than originally anticipated. While acknowledging that the sales of even a tenth of the distributed cryptocurrency would still make a market dent, Thorn nevertheless emphasizes that most creditors often deposit their coins directly into trading accounts, thus rendering them easily sellable.
Expounding on the theme of disbursement effects, Vijay Ayyar, the Head of Consumer Growth for Asia-Pacific at Gemini crypto exchange, argues that the varied nature of the Mt. Gox refunds would probably spread the overall impact. Ayyar points out that individual custodians would get their Bitcoin instantaneously, with substantial amounts being disbursed to claims funds, who would, in turn, parcel it out to their limited partners at a later time.
Stepping into a new month, analysts have started handing down their predictions on the probable Bitcoin prices for July, backed by historical trends and technical analyses. Ali Martinez, a noted observer of such trends, has highlighted that despite a bleak June performance, Bitcoin has always shown a strong rebound in July, with an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60%.
The charismatic Martinez further emphasizes that Bitcoin currently shows strong support at $61,100, making this a critical juncture for price stability. Conversely, he marks $64,050 and $66,250 as major resistance points, a breakthrough of which would signal Bitcoin’s potential ascent to its March peak of $73,700.
Echoing this outlook, technical analyst Rekt Capital proposes that Bitcoin demonstrates the potential for favorable price actions to form an accumulation at the Range Low of $60,600—a pattern that could evolve throughout July and prep Bitcoin for a potential rally back to the Range High at $71,500.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $62,630, up 2% on the 24-hour scale.
