In a significant diplomatic venture, French President Emmanuel Macron undertakes a strategic visit to Central Asia, at a time when the region positions itself as a linchpin in Europe’s supply of nuclear and fossil fuels, in particular, to France. Macron’s journey is an effort to forge businesses in and deepen ties with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The trip’s rationale relates to earlier events in July, when a military coup in Niger stoked concerns of a potential disruption in France’s vital nuclear supply chain. Nominal as these fears might have been – Niger ranked only as France’s second-largest uranium supplier with Kazakhstan at the helm – they take on significant relevance in light of Macron’s trip.
Macron, in his meetings with Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the President of Kazakhstan, and leaders in Uzbekistan, is witnessing the geopolitical dynamics of nations wielding considerable influence in fuel production. Both presidencies are defined by their strong authoritarian style. In endorsing France as a “vital and dependable partner”, Tokayev echoed Macron’s sentiments, who expressed gratitude for Kazakhstan’s support of Western sanctions against Russia.
Erosion in Russian oil exports to the EU following the Ukraine invasion has catapulted Kazakhstan into being the EU’s third-largest oil provider, trailing Norway and the US. The critical subject, however, is Central Asian uranium. France, which counts on nuclear power for over 60% of its electricity supply—the highest globally, values Kazakhstan’s uranium bounty. Consequently, Kazakhstan hopes to harness French expertise to bolster its nuclear power industry and engineering sector.
As geopolitics in Central Asia navigate a dramatic shift away from centuries-long Russian dominance, according to political scientist Dosym Satpayev, Russia’s influence dwindles in the aftermath of the Ukraine war. Despite the whispers of waning military collaborations and the declining perception of Russia, Moscow’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, indeed has denounced the gradual estrangement of “neighbours, friends, and allies”.
The emerging rapport isn’t devoid of tensions either. Alarming findings reveal Russia’s evasion of sanctions by importing western goods via Central Asia, ending up fuelling Russia’s war effort. With Russia dug in for a protracted war and concerns about Western support dwindling in Ukraine, these parallel imports could be a stumbling block in Central Asia’s warming ties with the EU.
A noteworthy aspect of this geopolitical chessboard is the attenuation of China’s influence. Despite its moderate military grip, China’s economic stronghold on Central Asia, particularly through its Belt and Road initiative, has expanded significantly. It boasts of funding over a hundred projects in Central Asia, with new initiatives often labeled “Chinese”.
While France and the EU may not competitively match China’s financial muscles in its neighboring region, Macron’s visit might leverage the strategic window granted by the Ukraine war to entice Russia’s conventional partners to lean towards the West.
