While Labour continues to pose a considerable challenge to the Scottish National Party (SNP), there is no air of complacency, indicated Humza Yousaf, the First Minister. This declaration comes just a week ahead of a consequential by-election taking place in Rutherglen.
Expectations are soaring within Labour’s ranks, as the party’s stalwarts stand confident of making a breakthrough in Scotland. Sir Keir Starmer, the party leader, has expressed his aspiration to grab a substantial number of seats in Scotland to establish a firm “mandate”.
The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election is a linchpin for the party, as Starmer noted, “It is very important for us. There is no getting away from that.” The by-election was necessitated after the unseating of former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier due to breach of Covid lockdown rules. This event is perceived as a litmus test for Labour’s potential resurgence in Scotland, a likelihood backed by recent polls.
Internal sources from the Labour party predict a sweeping victory, no less than a significant win in Rutherglen, suggesting they could compete for nearly two dozen seats in Scotland come the general elections. This claim is staggering considering Labour’s current representation in Scotland is a lone MP seat.
While SNP insiders agree that voter turnout could swing the pendulum, they also admit to a wobble caused by the recent police inquiry into SNP funding mishaps. The investigation briefly saw the detention and subsequent release of former leader Nicola Sturgeon and her husband, Peter Murrell, without any charges.
Yousaf observes Labour’s buoyant mood, commenting, “Labour is popping the Champagne corks – putting up the bunting, they are complacent.” Nonetheless, he adds, “We’ve been in government for 16 years. Of course, there are challenges. But 16 years in, with probably the most difficult six months my party has faced, we’re still leading in the [national] polls.”
The Labour party’s political trajectory in Scotland nosedived after the independence referendum of 2014, culminating in the dramatic loss of 40 seats a year later and returning just one MP. However, Labour now stands on the brink of snatching a seat from the SNP in a by-election for the first time in history, what they believe could be a beacon for their resurgence in Scotland.
Starmer remarked, “For the Labour Party, it matters that we win in Scotland to have the mandate – to have the authority – to take the whole of the UK forward.” With an air of determination, he confessed, “I don’t want to win a general election without winning more significantly in Scotland.”
Despite not quantifying what “significant” entailed, Labour strategists hold the conviction that the party could potentially reclaim 20 or more MP seats in Scotland in the forthcoming general election.
The possibility of tactical voting at the by-election cannot be ruled out, with SNP leaders contemplating that many anti-independence voters, regardless of their opinion of Labour, may cast their vote in their favour.
While emphasizing the relevance of the Conservative vote, deputy leader Meghan Gallacher points out the party’s strong opposition to SNP’s independence proposition and a focus on issues pertinent to the Rutherglen populace including living cost. The Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens, too, are planning their respective strategies for the by-election, conscious of their role in the electoral fray.
