Is Trump’s Secret Plan to Build a National Bitcoin Reserve the Game-Changer We Never Saw Coming?

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Bettors on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly confident that Donald Trump, upon assuming the U.S. presidency, will establish a national Bitcoin reserve by 2026. The odds have surged to around 70% on Kalshi, a U.S. derivatives exchange, while Polymarket users see a 42% chance of this occurring within Trump’s first 100 days in office. This rise in optimism marks a 20% increase from earlier in January.

Prediction markets, which allow participants to trade outcome-based contracts, have become popular tools for forecasting political events. Kalshi and Polymarket attracted significant attention during the November U.S. elections, successfully predicting not only Trump’s victory but also his party’s control of Congress. Their accuracy outpaced that of traditional polling methods.


Trump’s pro-crypto stance was visible during his address at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where he vowed to transform the U.S. into a global cryptocurrency leader. He pledged to create a strategic national Bitcoin reserve and ruled out selling the U.S. government’s Bitcoin holdings. In alignment with this vision, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis recently proposed the BITCOIN Act, mandating the Treasury to acquire one million BTC over five years.

New York Post reports suggest Trump is open to broadening the reserve to incorporate a variety of cryptocurrencies, including USD Coin, Solana, and XRP. Moreover, he is expected to sign an executive order upon taking office, prioritizing cryptocurrency as a national agenda item.

Cryptocurrency industry insiders believe a U.S. Bitcoin reserve could significantly boost Bitcoin adoption, even more so than the anticipated ETFs set to launch in 2024. Cryptocurrency researcher CoinShares emphasized this in a recent blog post, highlighting the potential long-term impact of the Bitcoin Act on the digital currency landscape.