Recent survey results indicate that two-thirds of Americans anticipate a rise in the stock market by 2025, although they foresee a simultaneous increase in both domestic political conflict and international tensions. Conducted by Gallup, the poll surveyed up to 100,000 participants between December 4 and 15, shortly following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. According to the findings, 66% of respondents predict a stock market upswing in 2025, compared to a 30% increase from the 2023 outlook recorded in December 2022 amid high inflation and a lack of confidence in the economy.
Despite the optimism about stock market trends, only 23% of Americans expect positive political cooperation within the U.S., and just 32% anticipate peaceful international relations in 2025. Although these figures are low, they show an improvement from 2023 when only 9% expected political cooperation and 14% international peace.
The projected rise in stock markets may influence the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, which has historically shown volatile behavior in correlation with market trends. Bitcoin tends to rally during sustained stock market improvements as investors become more willing to take risks. However, geopolitical tensions have previously led to abrupt declines in Bitcoin value, as seen when conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or tensions between Iran and Israel affected the market.
Additional economic forecasts suggest a challenging outlook for 2025, with 54% of survey respondents anticipating increasing or full employment, and 52% expecting reasonable price growth. Nonetheless, many foresee economic difficulties due to an expanding federal budget deficit and China’s growing global influence.
Political affiliation appears to play a role in these expectations, as Republicans are generally more optimistic about the upcoming year compared to Democrats, likely buoyed by Trump’s recent election victory. The crypto market shares some of this optimism, with expectations of a more crypto-friendly administration potentially strengthening Bitcoin against other major stock indexes.
Before the Gallup poll concluded, the Federal Reserve left its interest rate-cutting plans for 2025 at two instead of the previously projected five, possibly impacting the stock and crypto markets by creating a less favorable macroeconomic environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
