In an inflammatory move, House Republicans are set to elect assertive Jim Jordan as speaker on Tuesday, a figure known for his drive to obstruct rather than govern. The party is ending its fortnight of speakership disarray, but in doing so, they are potentially elevating a key player in former President Donald Trump’s ploy to subvert the 2020 election to a position next in line for the presidency after President Joe Biden.
This move would entail a resounding victory for Trump, considering Jordan’s track record of utilizing his authority to scrutinize Democratic presidential candidates, including Biden and 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton. Prior to last year’s midterm elections, Jordan vocalized his intent at the Conservative Political Action Conference to exploit probes into the Biden administration to set the stage for Trump’s 2024 race.
Maintaining his pledge, Jordan has endeavored to underscore the former president’s assertions that the federal government has been manipulated against him, shifting attention from the four criminal trials Trump is currently embroiled in. Jordan has also taken a significant role in the impeachment investigation opened against Biden, despite the GOP’s failure to provide evidence of personal gain from the business endeavors of Biden’s son in countries such as China and Ukraine.
Over the weekend, Jordan’s chances of becoming speaker escalated as he leveraged an intensive lobbying campaign to persuade undecided votes. Several key moderates who previously expressed reluctance to back the Ohio Republican revised their stance by Monday. However, with a slim House GOP majority, Jordan can afford to lose only four Republicans to secure the position, with a vote in the full House scheduled for Tuesday.
Nevertheless, several influential dissenters pledge to vote solely for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy or decline to support Jordan, who co-founded the conservative Freedom Caucus, a factor instrumental in the downfall of the last three Republican speakers. Critics of Jordan express concern over his role prior to the January 6, 2021, insurrection, during which he planned to dispute the results. There is apprehension that his inflexible stance could alienate pivotal swing voters next year.
If Jordan receives the speakership, his staunch unwillingness to compromise is expected to ignite immediate concerns over a government shutdown, a potential consequence of the Republican demand for significant spending cuts. McCarthy had previously used Democratic votes to pass a stopgap funding measure, a move that cost him his position, in an attempt to avoid a nationwide crisis that could impact millions. Jordan stands out among right-wing Republicans who aim to utilize their authority to impose their agenda, regardless of the Democrat-controlled Senate and White House.
As Speaker, Jordan holds half the power of one of the three branches of the U.S. government, a role that imposes responsibilities towards the Constitution and the national interest that eclipse those of individual members. This position of power may challenge Jordan, who has historically been an agitator rather than an insider. This shift in roles has been questioned by John Boehner, fellow Ohioan and former Republican House Speaker, who stated in a 2021 interview that Jordan appeared more intent on destruction than construction.
The rise of Jordan would exemplify one of the most significant shifts for Washington Republicans towards a far-right, populist, nationalist ideology committed to destabilizing political institutions more than effecting change. The Freedom Caucus would take center stage within the House, reducing the power of traditional Washington, D.C. political establishment, which is scorned by much of the party’s grassroots voters.
Despite the implied shift in power, the move towards Jordan is likely reflective of lawmakers’ understanding that ongoing chaos within the House is detrimental for the party and presents an image of weakness in the face of intensifying crises in the Middle East.
New York Representative Marc Molinaro, whose district would have favored Biden in 2020 under redefined boundaries, announced his backing for Jordan on Monday, emphasizing his desire for effective governance. Molinaro declared that his constituents simply desire the government to address inflation, secure the borders, and engage in governance on behalf of the people, reinstating the functionality of the House.
Jordan stands as one of the few able to rein in right-wing rebels, being one of their own. Should he secure the speakership, he may seek a degree of governance to demonstrate the GOP’s ability to achieve results ahead of the 2024 election. Similar to former President Richard Nixon securing a political opportunity as a staunch anti-Communist to initiate relations with Mao’s China, Jordan may be more free than other potential Republican leaders to make difficult compromises while maintaining control over his hardliners.
Appointing Jordan to resolve the stalemate poses a considerable risk for the GOP. His close affiliation with Trump, who has endorsed Jordan for the top position, may estrange moderate voters critical to the party’s narrow majority in last year’s midterms. His pattern of confrontational politics could provoke a stand-off with the Democratic Senate and the White House regarding spending, leading to a potential government shutdown by mid-November and backlash against Republicans.
Jordan’s supporters see his formidable use of power and his uncompromising stance as strengths. However, these qualities are not traditionally associated with successful speakers. Rather than unifying the factions within his party, Jordan’s approach to politics has consistently stirred division. His aggressive tactics, rooted in his past as a collegiate wrestling champion, have earned him admiration amongst conservative media and made him a favorite of Trump’s.
However, Jordan falls short in an essential aspect of a party leader in the House: raising funds. In contrast, his predecessor, McCarthy, was known for his lucrative fundraisers that contributed to candidates and won the loyalty of his supporters. Jordan has in the past worked against some of his fellow members, with the Freedom Caucus’s political arm backing primary challengers against 10 GOP incumbents throughout the past few cycles.
According to the Center for Effective Lawmaking, a collaborative project between the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University, the primary function of the House has traditionally been to pass laws. By this standard, Jordan is one of the least effective legislators of his generation.
Regardless, Jordan’s supporters have strived to counteract his liabilities ahead of the floor vote, which would compel his opponents to publicly disavow him at the risk of drawing primary challenges. After “two cordial, thoughtful, and productive” discussions with Jordan, House Armed Services Chairman Mike Rogers of Alabama reversed his anti-Jordan stance and secured Jordan’s support for a strong defense bill. Insiders familiar with Jordan’s pitch to the GOP conference reported promises to vigorously fundraise for Republicans nationwide while protecting moderates from primary challenges next year from hardline, pro-Trump candidates.
Meanwhile, some major GOP donors vow to refrain from investing in the House majority under Jordan, opting instead to allocate their resources towards flipping the Senate next year. This hesitancy highlights the potential 2024 Republican roster: Trump, the front-runner for the presidential nomination, and Jordan, the most powerful Republican in Washington, which may provide Democrats campaigning in battleground districts a valuable advantage in deciding the election.
Despite these considerations, several key lawmakers appear to have accepted the potential damage resulting from handing Jordan the speaker’s gavel, mainly due to the harm inflicted upon the GOP and their re-election prospects by ongoing internal conflicts. New York Representative Mike Lawler, a pro-McCarthy freshman who is one of the most vulnerable Republicans next year, called for the House to resume its work.
He dismissed criticisms already emerging from Democrats over his possible vote for Jordan. Lawler, well-aware of his constituents, thinks they simply seek a functional government. However, the havoc Jordan could potentially wreak may provide voters with sufficient reason to vote against Lawler in the November of next year elections.
