The second presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle will mark a historic face-off between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Scheduled for Tuesday, September 10, the debate comes 75 days after Trump’s previous encounter with President Joe Biden on June 27, an event that raised questions about Biden’s mental fitness and ability to serve another term. Under tremendous pressure from influential figures like President Barack Obama and US Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Biden decided not to seek re-election, paving the way for Harris to step in as the Democratic candidate.
Harris has reportedly been meticulously preparing for this high-stakes debate, focusing on refining her messages and rehearsing her responses. In the meantime, political bettors are placing their wagers on various outcomes of the debate, anticipating everything from who will dominate speaking time to the specific phrases each candidate might use.
The debate will air live at 9 pm EST from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia and will be moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis of ABC News. Pennsylvania, the debate’s location, is considered a critical swing state that could influence the Electoral College results. Current polling averages show Harris holding a slim 0.6-point lead over Trump in the state.
On Polymarket, a political wagering exchange, participants are actively betting on the debate’s potential turns of events. With just over a day before the debate, bettors are convinced that Trump will have more speaking time, but that polls will ultimately favor Harris as the debate’s victor. There are also financial stakes on Harris possibly labeling Trump a “convicted felon” and mentioning abortion, with high probabilities assigned to these scenarios. Bettors give Harris a one in five chance of repeating her famous “I’m speaking” line from her 2020 debate with Mike Pence.
In contrast, Trump is expected to refer to Harris as the “border czar,” and there’s speculation about whether he might nickname her “Comrade Kamala” to associate her with communist policies. Bettors are confident, with a 66% chance, that Trump will use the term “fake news” and expect him to mention “China” at least three times, with odds nearing nine in ten. The likelihood of Trump referencing Israel stands at a solid 90%.
Oddsmakers doubt that Trump and Harris will engage in a handshake, either at the beginning or end of the debate, with current shares in that market trading low at just 27 cents.
As of September 9, Polymarket odds show Trump as the frontrunner for the 2024 election, with his shares indicating a 52% chance of victory, compared to Harris’s 46%. The stakes are immense, with over $844.9 million riding on the election outcome set for November 5.
Across the Atlantic, UK oddsmakers also favor Trump, listing him at 4/5 (-125), suggesting a likelihood of 55.56%. A $100 bet on Trump would net $80 in profit. Meanwhile, Harris is the underdog at 11/10 (+110), where a winning $100 bet would yield $110.
