Tuesday night’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump attracted an estimated 67.1 million viewers, according to the Nielsen company. While the Harris-Trump debate didn’t reach the record 84 million viewers of Trump’s first debate against Hillary Clinton in 2016, it still surpassed Trump’s June debate with President Joe Biden, which drew 51.3 million viewers, and fell short of the 73.1 million viewers for the first Trump-Biden debate in 2020.
Post-debate, political bettors have largely considered Harris the winner. Consequently, her odds of securing the presidency on November 5 have improved. On Polymarket, Harris’s implied odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have risen to 50%, or even money, up from 45% before the debate. This optimism stems partly from Harris’s strategic gesture of shaking hands with Trump at the debate’s start—a move Trump seemed unprepared for, which paid off for bettors who wagered that the two would greet each other.
As Harris’s chances have increased, Trump’s have diminished, with his implied odds dropping from 53% to 49%. Nearly $900 million has been wagered on Polymarket regarding the election outcome.
Trump felt the repercussions of his weak debate performance not only in odds but financially as well. Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: DJT), the parent company of his Truth Social platform, fell almost 20% on Wednesday. The media group, which also plans to launch a streaming service called TMTG+ featuring “non-woke” entertainment and conservative news, has seen its stock plunge more than 75% from its high of $66.22 in late March to around $16. Trump owns approximately 60% of the company’s shares.
The DJT ticker symbol reappeared on Wall Street when Trump took his media group public. The symbol was first used in 1995 when Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts went public and remained until the company’s bankruptcy in 2004. Trump later created Trump Entertainment Resorts, which traded under the ticker TRMP.
In the wake of the debate, bookmakers like William Hill in the United Kingdom have reported a surge in bets favoring Harris. Many high-street sportsbooks have also adjusted their odds to reflect her stronger position.
By Thursday afternoon, Harris’s odds to become the 47th president stood at 4/5 (-125). A successful $100 bet on this line would yield $80, reflecting a probability of nearly 56%. Trump’s odds were at even money (+100), meaning a $100 bet would double the wager if he wins.
The national polling average as of September 12 places Harris at 47.9% support compared to Trump’s 46.7%. However, the election will hinge on several key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In Nevada, the largest casino workers’ union is actively campaigning for Harris. The Culinary Union’s endorsement of Harris aligns with its historical opposition to Republican candidates. The union had initially supported Biden until he withdrew from the 2024 race.
