By most accounts, Vice President Kamala Harris was deemed the winner of Tuesday night’s presidential debate against former President Donald Trump. Her strong performance wasn’t a total surprise, as she was the betting favorite on the political wagering exchange Polymarket to be considered the winner before the Tuesday showdown.
During the debate in Philadelphia on September 10, 2024, Harris and Trump squared off for their first, and possibly last, presidential debate. Following the more than 90-minute spectacle, the 2024 odds shifted in Harris’ favor. Prior to the debate, Polymarket, which facilitates the buying and selling of shares of political outcomes, had Trump as the favorite with his stock trading around 52 cents to Harris’ 46 cents. However, those numbers quickly changed after Tuesday night.
Harris, poised at the National Constitution Center, spoke directly to the people and managed to bait her opponent into discussing the past. Trump became visibly upset at times while trying to defend his record and expose hers and President Joe Biden’s. Despite Trump declaring it his “best debate ever,” even Republican stalwarts admitted that he had a poor performance. He appeared unprepared, relied on old talking points that failed to resonate with independents and less extreme Republicans, and seemed overconfident when facing his new Democratic rival.
Political bettors took note, swiftly moving their election positions in favor of Harris. Trump has largely been the 2024 betting front-runner since his June debate with Biden, which led to Biden announcing he wouldn’t seek a second term. Harris, as the party’s chosen replacement, appears to be a rising gamble that’s paying off.
As Trump reiterated his belief that the 2020 election was rigged, the 2024 Polymarket contest continued to move in Harris’ favor. Betfair, another political wagering exchange, reported a similar trend. By noon on September 11, Polymarket showed Trump’s shares at 50 cents and Harris’ at 49 cents. Betfair’s odds implied a 51.2% winning chance for Harris and 50% for Trump.
In the UK, where political betting is allowed, sportsbooks like William Hill also shortened Harris’ odds while lengthening Trump’s. William Hill now has Harris at 4/5 (-125), or implied odds of 55.56%, and Trump at 10/11 (-110), with an implied chance of 52.38%. Before the debate, Trump was favored at -125 and Harris was an underdog at +110.
While most Americans are very familiar with Trump, Tuesday’s debate offered Harris her first significant opportunity to resonate with voters after largely staying out of the limelight over the past three and a half years. Harris remained light on policy specifics, preferring a softer approach aimed at appealing to voters’ emotions. Trump, brash as ever, faced criticism from his supporters who claimed it was a three-on-one debate, with ABC News moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis repeatedly fact-checking him while letting Harris’ talking points go unchecked.
As the odds indicate a shift in Harris’ favor, next week’s polls are expected to reflect similar changes. However, the final decision rests with voters on November 5.
