The 2024 odds for the next president of the United States have former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat.
The Democratic National Convention concluded last night with Harris formally accepting the party’s nomination for president. She was hand-picked by the party’s elite after President Joe Biden heeded calls to exit the race following concerns raised about his mental fitness after a disastrous June debate against Trump.
Thursday night was overshadowed by a much-teased surprise guest appearance, with speculation rife about possible appearances from Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, or even former Republican President George W. Bush endorsing the vice president for a promotion. Harris delivered an energetic speech focused on her upbringing, though critics were quick to point out that it was short on specific policy pledges.
Harris’ post-convention boost could be tempered by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s afternoon announcement suspending his presidential campaign and endorsing Trump.
With just 73 days until Nov. 5, and early voting set to begin shortly across the nation, Harris and Trump are virtually tied according to political bettors gambling on the 2024 outcome. On Polymarket, a decentralized political wagering exchange, Trump’s stock is trading at 51 cents while Harris is a slight underdog at 48 cents. Just hours ago, the two were deadlocked at 49 cents each. Polymarket reports that more than $710.5 million has been bet on the market, with winning shares redeemable at a dollar each. The platform charges a small fee for deposits and withdrawals.
Smarkets, another online political wagering platform, shows Harris slightly ahead with implied odds of 50.5% compared to Trump’s 49%, though the platform’s 2024 election outcome market has seen less than $8.2 million in trades. Betfair, yet another peer-to-peer political betting exchange, lists both candidates at even money.
Across the Atlantic, where election betting is embraced, leading UK sportsbook William Hill has both Harris and Trump at 10/11 odds (-110), implying a 52.48% probability for each. A successful $100 bet would net $90.91.
In terms of the latest polling data, Real Clear Politics’ average places Harris ahead by a narrow margin of 48.4% to 46.9% over Trump.
The U.S. government has long opposed gambling on elections, resulting in state gaming regulators prohibiting sportsbooks from offering political betting lines in jurisdictions where sports betting is legal. Wagering exchanges have operated in a grey area stateside, though this might soon change. In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which granted a “No-Action Relief” letter in 2014 to an online political wagering site, has reconsidered its stance. Under Chair Rostin Behnam, who assumed office in January 2022, the CFTC recommended excluding such exchanges from the marketplace, signaling a new approach to political wagering. The CFTC is responsible for regulating derivative markets, including futures, swaps, and certain kinds of options.
