Amid global crises in Israel and Ukraine that underscore the high cost of internal division, the Republican faction of the House faces the challenging task of selecting a new speaker. Possible candidates, Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, are left grappling with managing their conference’s hardliners, whose actions have previously ousted Kevin McCarthy and cast the United States in a shadow of diminishing power, struggling to govern itself, let alone lead an unruly world.
The Republicans have set Wednesday as the day of an internal secret ballot election to choose their nominee for the role, second only to the presidency. However, external affairs of gravity seem incapable of halting the ceaseless internal conflict within the GOP. Doubts loom concerning the ability of either Scalise or Jordan to secure the necessary sweeping support from the Republican conference for a decisive vote in the full House.
Additionally, the House GOP, already appearing notably complacent with a potential government shutdown next month, threatens to undermine the capacity of the USA to respond to the terror unfolding across Israel and Ukraine. The latter’s fight for sovereignty could reach a critical junction if the next aid package fails to pass the House.
On Tuesday night, Republican lawmakers assembled as Jordan and Scalise presented their case. Given the slim GOP majority, a speaker nominee can afford to lose a mere four Republican votes to secure the gavel in a full House vote. Democrats who declined to shield McCarthy from a revolt by eight hardliners last week have since named their leader, Hakeem Jeffries of New York, as their speaker candidate. This suggests their intention to observe once again from the sidelines, baring GOP dysfunction ahead of the forthcoming election.
The key question remains whether Scalise or Jordan can rally their party enough to secure a decisive victory in the floor vote. In attempting to evade a repeat of the public display of disorganization that marked McCarthy’s tenure, Republicans have secluded themselves behind closed doors. Both Jordan and Scalise committed to mutual support, provided either secures the nomination.
Regardless of who emerges as the new speaker, that individual would still face mounting pressure imposed by the slim majority, the divided power in Washington, and a GOP that has vehemently resisted past unity efforts made by previous Republican speakers to ensure long-term governance. The recent victor will also face both present and impending crises. Unless Congress approves additional funding by November 17, a government shutdown is imminent, potentially leading to delayed payments for troops and severe disruption to public services.
To prevent this scenario, several vast spending bills will either have to pass within a month, an unlikely feat, or another temporary spending patch will be proposed that may garner opposition from a sizeable contingent within the GOP. Any such measure that passes the House GOP is unlikely to gain support in the Senate or White House due to hardliner demands for cuts significantly below those agreed upon by McCarthy and Biden.
Furthermore, the House will also have to contend with the president’s request for over $20 billion in military aid to Ukraine amidst its battle against Russia. With Republicans blocking additional funding, and the recent attack on Israel complicating things further, the future majority held by the GOP is entrenched in substantial challenge and uncertainty, regardless of the speaker selected on Wednesday.
