In a startling turn of events, the Manhattan apartment of Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan was raided by the FBI just days after the platform garnered attention for accurately forecasting the outcome of the US presidential election, outstripping traditional polling. The early morning raid resulted in the confiscation of Coplan’s phone and electronic equipment, although the reasons behind the seizure remain unclear and have sparked a flurry of speculation.
A company spokesperson confirmed to Business Insider that the FBI targeted Coplan’s residence but withheld specific details. Reports from The New York Post and Axios indicated that while the 26-year-old executive’s devices were taken, he was not arrested. In a cryptic social media post on X shortly after the raid, Coplan quipped, “new phone, who dis?”
The incident has been branded by a Polymarket spokesperson as “political retribution” for the platform’s accurate election predictions. However, it’s plausible that federal authorities are investigating the extent to which U.S. citizens were participating in election-related speculation on Polymarket. Despite the platform’s claims to block U.S. users, the possibility of accessing it through VPNs could circumvent such restrictions.
Polymarket, known as a decentralized and unregulated financial exchange and prediction platform, reportedly managed about $3.2 billion in cryptocurrency globally during the election speculation frenzy. The exact engagement of U.S. citizens on the platform remains uncertain, yet the platform’s claim of predicting the election suggests a substantial sample size of American voters.
The platform allows users to buy event contracts, a type of financial derivative enabling them to wager on the outcomes of specific events, from cinematic awards to political races. While only Kalshi is legally permitted to offer such services in the U.S. under the grudging oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Polymarket has emerged as a key player in this speculative market.
Leading up to the election, the CFTC attempted to prevent Kalshi from listing event contracts on the presidency, citing the illegality of election betting in the U.S. and potential risks that market manipulation could influence electoral outcomes. By placing large bets on a candidate, wealthy individuals or entities could skew public perceptions and potentially affect voter turnout and morale.
Historical precedent exists for such manipulation attempts. In the 2012 presidential race, an unknown trader tried and failed to influence the market by heavily betting on Mitt Romney. In the current election cycle, a French national dubbed the “Trump Whale” made headlines by profiting $85 million from correctly predicting Trump’s victory. In a pre-election interview with The Wall Street Journal, the trader claimed no political bias, asserting his own polling indicated overestimated support for Kamala Harris.
The FBI might also be scrutinizing the trader’s professed political neutrality, adding another layer of intrigue to the ongoing investigation.
