Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has hit multi-year lows against Bitcoin (BTC), with analysts predicting additional declines. On March 13, the ETH/BTC pair fell over 1.50% to $0.022, marking its lowest level since May 2020. This drop is part of a long-term downtrend from a peak of $0.156 in June 2017, representing an 85% decline. The relative strength index (RSI), an indicator of whether an asset is overbought or oversold, has fallen to a historic low of 23.32, suggesting an ongoing acceleration in ETH’s downturn despite being in oversold territory for two months.
Crypto analyst Alessandro Ottaviani describes the situation as a “falling knife,” a term for an asset experiencing rapid declines that deter buyers. For a reversal, traders are watching for RSI stabilization and a rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, which previously led to a significant rally. A successful rebound could push the ETH/BTC pair toward the 0.038 BTC mark, aligning with the 50-week exponential moving average.
However, the technical analysis indicates ETH/BTC might remain on a downward trajectory, with potential support at 0.020-0.016 BTC. This low range equates to roughly 30% below current levels. Beyond technical factors, Ethereum faces competition from other blockchains like Solana, whose decentralized exchange volume recently surpassed Ethereum’s. Additionally, the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs has altered the crypto market cycle, affecting capital flows and suppressing altcoins like Ethereum.
Ethereum-specific issues also contribute to the bearish outlook. A recent hack of Bybit exchange resulted in substantial ETH liquidations, further depressing its value. These combined pressures imply ETH’s struggle may continue against Bitcoin’s dominance in the foreseeable future.
