As Poles prepare to vote in the forthcoming elections, the stakes are high and tension palpable. Opposition leader, Donald Tusk, has declared this the “most significant election since 1989’s fall of communism”. The country gears up to make a choice, the weight of which could echo for years.
Leading the Right coalition, the Law and Justice party’s right-wing populism is vying for a third term, a feat yet to be achieved in post-communist Poland. Nonetheless, nothing is set in stone. In the wake of a feverishly disputed campaign, the voting predictions are rapidly changing, displaying a slimming gap between the dominant right and its centrist opposition leading up to the October 15 voting.
Poland has been a faithful ally to Ukraine, more so when Russia initiated a full-scale invasion. Yet, the election seasons have strained this fraternal bond, primarily revolving around Poland’s prohibition on Ukrainian grain. Additionally, Warsaw’s overt hostility towards the European Union, spurring claims that it’s undermining democratic norms, has raised brows internationally. Mr. Morawiecki, the current Prime Minister, stands firm, rejecting any directives “from Berlin and Brussels.”
The frontrunner in the polls, Law and Justice party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has been at Poland’s helm since 2015. While their position is robust, the possibility of forming an absolute majority seemed a challenge even for them.
Donald Tusk heads the centrist Civic Coalition (KO) that sets out as the main opposition. Hampered by failing to unite with moderate factions namely, the Third Way and The Left, the path to triumph appears daunting. Yet, Tusk remains optimistic, proclaiming a monumental turning point and equating the forthcoming elections to “Poland’s renaissance.”
One of the significant debates unraveling ahead of the elections is the question of migration. The Law and Justice party has amplified its anti-migrant rhetoric, asserting that the EU and opposition desire to impose Muslim migrants within a predominantly Roman Catholic nation. They have steadily rejected any asylum-seekers making entry via other EU countries.
However, the opposition fired back, accusing the ruling party of double standards by attesting that they have overseen the largest immigration wave in recent history and implying a shady visa affair with the Middle East and Africa.
The Ukraine issue has also contributed to the campaign dynamics. Despite initially welcoming Ukrainian refugees, relations strained when the government insinuated ingratitude on Ukraine’s part. The only opposing voice against Ukrainian immigration is the far-right Konfederacja, who also rebuked the government’s provision of benefits to these refugees.
A myriad of other factors is at play. The Law and Justice party is advertising Catholic family values alongside a hike in child support and increased minimum wage. Yet, their tightened abortion laws and alleged politicisation of the judiciary have churned anger and criticism, leading to financial penalties from the EU.
In this highly volatile scenario, the outcome of the forthcoming elections could significantly influence Poland’s relationship with the European Union. The Poles are tasked with selecting not only the upcoming government but also resolving crucial referendum questions on privatisation, retirement age, border security and immigration policies. An ambitious task lies ahead, and Poland braces for impact.
