Travis Kling, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, has suggested a direct link between US presidential election outcomes and Bitcoin prices. On X, Kling delves into political dynamics and their implications for crypto markets, specifically focusing on the potential re-election of Donald Trump.
Kling’s analysis centers on several key political events and their impacts on betting markets, which he views as reflective of broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m wrong often. Bitcoin has likely been trading with a correlation to Trump winning. And that makes sense to me. BTC/crypto will be MUCH better off under a Trump admin,” he stated.
He highlighted the Democratic National Convention’s perceived shortcomings and an expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as critical moments that could influence Bitcoin prices. “The DNC does not appear to be going particularly well. RFK is supposed to be endorsing Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up on Polymarket and if RFK goes for Trump, I would guess Poly would widen out further,” Kling noted. He believes these developments will peak on September 10.
This date coincides with the first debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in Philadelphia. “It’s Trump’s to lose IMO. If he shows up for Kamala the way he showed up for Biden, polls/Poly should widen further still,” Kling commented.
Kling anticipates the Bitcoin price to surge towards $72,000. “Given that BTC is trading with Trump, it would make sense to me that all this would add up to BTC being back up to the top of this 6-month range,” he speculated.
However, Kling also warned against too much optimism. He expressed uncertainty whether the BTC price could break out of its established trading range before the election, unless polls indicate a significant advantage for Trump. “Hate it or love it, this election is highly consequential for us, short-term price action just being one aspect of that.”
Contrasting Kling’s views, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, offered a different perspective. “Bitcoin is Not Currently Trading With Trump Odds, Though I Expect That to Change,” Sigel stated.
FalconX, a prominent crypto prime broker, recently analyzed the correlation between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s electoral odds on Polymarket, a platform for betting on political outcomes. Their findings from June 1 to August 15 showed no apparent correlation, suggesting other factors might have influenced Bitcoin’s price more significantly. These included a 50,000 BTC sell-off by the German government and liquidations by former customers of Mt. Gox.
A coalition between Trump and Kennedy Jr. would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. It would enhance Trump’s odds of winning the US election and bring another strong Bitcoin supporter into his campaign. Like Trump, Kennedy Jr. has advocated for substantial government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department purchase 550 Bitcoins daily until it amasses 4 million BTC in reserves.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $61,067.
