Crypto Crash: Insights and Potential Surge Predicted Amid Halving Event Looms


A dramatic downturn has rocked the world of cryptocurrency, brutally slicing across the value of top 100 cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin, the leader of the virtual pack, plummeting to a low of $61,600 on Tuesday. Yet, hope kindles amidst the financial rubble. Astute industry insiders forecast a potential surge, propelling the market to even greater heights as the much-awaited Halving event looms in the near future.

Sitting at the epicenter of these predictions is Adrian Zduńczyk, a seasoned crypto trader and technical analyst. Zduńczyk throws light on the shifting sands of the market, drawing attention to crucial elements such as bullish market indicators, ETFs, and the potentially game-changing Halving event.

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Zduńczyk presents a mixed bag of signals for Bitcoin. His analysis uncovers bullish credibility, with the 200-week and 50-week moving averages sketching a competent picture at $33,700 and $39,900 respectively. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, currently at 0.55, signals a robust trading environment while the 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 (SPX) firmly ensconces itself at 0.71.

Daily trends, however, present a somewhat volatile picture. Zduńczyk observes Bitcoin precariously teetering in a choppy range between $59,000 and $74,000. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is cresting at $46,600 and the 200-day Bitcoin Production Cost (BPRO) is surging to an impressive $57,700. Yet, Bitcoin’s persistent struggle against a tapering medium-term momentum and an escalated 50-day Average True Range (ATR) volatility of $3270 paint a decidedly different story, implying an erosion of its price trend in the medium-term timeframe.

Setting his sights on a target of $86,500, Zduńczyk investigates the undercurrent of market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index stands at a sizzling 65, indicative of unabashed greed among traders. Zduńczyk points out that the present phase of the market is marked by unshakeable belief.

In spite of the financial ups and downs, miners remain in profitable territory at prices above $41,800. Given the expectation of a price boom as mining difficulty surges after the Halving event, this segment of the market appears to be on solid ground. Previous Halving events substantiate this optimism, triggering massive price rallies and launching Bitcoin into stratospheric gains of 90X, 30X, and 7X. In fact, Bitcoin has never looked back after these surges, never slipping back to pre-Halving prices.

Seasonal habits further infuse positive sentiment. The monthly opening price for April is a promising $71,000, setting up a buoyant tone for the month. April’s anticipated average gain of 21.95% could propel Bitcoin’s end-of-month target to a hefty $86,500. Zduńczyk mentions that the period between April 16 to 30, historically marked by average gains of 14.69%, could present a tantalizing opportunity for investors to buy up the dip.

A contrary view, however, arises from the 1-D chart, revealing a concerning downtrend in Bitcoin’s price. Despite a positive overall outlook, Bitcoin is trading currently at $62,600, mirroring a persistent decline over the past month. It has suffered a 9% drop over the last 30 days from its mid-March zenith of $73,700. Bitcoin’s quest to shatter the $80,000 ceiling has met with stiff resistance at the $70,000 level. A constant struggle over a week has been unleashed to consolidate above this level with little success.

Despite these stumbling blocks, Zduńczyk continues to maintain faith in the ability of the promising synergy between the burgeoning ETF market in the United States and the fast-approaching Halving event to rejuvenate Bitcoin’s price trajectory. A word of caution, however, is extended to investors. They are advised to carry out comprehensive research and exercise caution in making investment decisions due to inherent market risks.