The crypto community is buzzing with a sense of expectant optimism as the prospect of a Spot Bitcoin ETF receiving regulatory approval looms on the horizon. This enthusiasm has been a significant catalyst in the recent two-month surge in cryptocurrency prices, as investors eagerly await the green light from authorities.
In the latest twist of events, despite the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delaying its verdict on various Spot ETF proposals, sentiment within the industry has not soured. On the contrary, it is imbued with a confident belief that the SEC is inching closer to an affirmative decision, potentially setting a historic precedent in the world of crypto assets.
Recent analysis from industry insiders has shifted expectations, which initially were conservative, towards a more assertive outlook. Analysts from the financial services firm Matrixport, including Head of Research Markus Thielen, are of the opinion that a breakthrough is imminent, placing a substantial 95% probability on a Spot Bitcoin ETF being green-lighted by January 2024.
Thielen’s report, unveiled on December 18, earmarks January 10 as the pivotal date by which the SEC is likely to approve at least one of the thirteen filings under consideration. The conclusions drawn within the report stem from several indications, including BlackRock’s amended S-1 filing with the SEC, which addressed specific guidelines such as monitoring price irregularities, secure cold storage of private keys, and contingency planning for Bitcoin forks.
Furthermore, the prompt response of the SEC to a November filing by investment firm Franklin-Templeton, ahead of the January deadline, signals a proactive approach from the regulatory body. The impression thereby formed is that of a regulator synchronizing the process to potentially grant multiple approvals by January 10, 2024.
Thielen underscores this active engagement by the SEC with potential ETF issuers as a novel and telling development. According to him, the alignment of instructions across discussions with various issuers by the SEC showcases a coordinated strategy, paving the way for a unified approval outcome.
An air of anticipation is palpable regarding the potential impact of these approvals on Bitcoin’s price trajectory, with analysts predicting another bullish run post-Christmas. Thielen speculates a target of $50,000 in the first quarter of 2024, contingent on the approvals catalyzing a fresh surge in investor interest.
Although skepticism surrounds the specific chances of a Grayscale Bitcoin trust converting into a Spot ETF exactly on January 10, the broader expectation is for a reallocation of investment from precious metals to Spot Bitcoin ETFs, capturing approximately 20 percent of the market, post-approval.
As the crypto community watches the horizon for the dawn of a new era in Bitcoin investment products, many eyes remain fixed on the SEC, awaiting January 10, 2024, with bated breath and hopeful wallets.