Speculations about the Bitcoin bull market coming to an end have been widely circulated in the crypto market, especially as the price has struggled to return to its March all-time high of over $73,000. Adding weight to this sentiment, a crypto analyst has released a scenario suggesting Bitcoin could plummet to $28,000.
In a recent post on X, formerly known as Twitter, crypto analyst and position trader Bob Loukas introduced a bearish outlook for Bitcoin that deviates from most analysts’ forecasts. Drawing on the cycle theory, Loukas posits that Bitcoin might be part of a broader 16-year cycle, with the current market representing the final four-year phase of this cycle.
Loukas proposes two potential outcomes for this four-year phase: a distribution phase where prices peak followed by a decline, or an upward phase with one last surge before a downturn begins. He emphasizes that while cycle trends can offer insights into future price movements, there is no guaranteed path that ensures an asset’s price will continuously rise.
The analyst aims to temper investors’ confidence in perpetual bullish trends for Bitcoin, arguing that a bear cycle is an inevitable component of market dynamics, although its timing remains uncertain.
Loukas identified specific price movements in his Bitcoin chart as potential bearish indicators, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to new lows around $28,500 by 2026. He also predicts that after a period marked by volatility, with both declines and surges, the cryptocurrency could rise again to $59,500 by 2027.
For further clarity, Loukas indicated that if Bitcoin were to close below the 10-month Moving Average (MA) during a bull market, it would raise concerns. Additionally, a monthly close below the $58,800 mark could signify the beginning of a potential downturn.
The crypto analyst estimates a 10% to 15% chance of this bearish scenario unfolding, stressing that it remains a possibility rather than a certainty. Despite his belief that the current market cycle leans more toward a bullish scenario based on historical data, Loukas considers alternative outcomes due to the inherent unpredictability and volatility of the crypto market.
While unveiling his bearish scenario, Loukas also noted a significant decline in broader interest in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin. He highlighted the lack of new retail investors, suggesting that this waning enthusiasm could hinder Bitcoin’s ability to attract fresh capital for growth.
According to Loukas, the disinterest among retail investors may be linked to a shift in sentiment. The enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies has largely diminished to mere speculation, with fewer people believing in their transformative potential.
Bitcoin’s price has recently dropped back to $68,000, further fueling concerns about its future trajectory and adding context to Loukas’s bearish forecast.
