Enthusiasm certainly abounded among the Civic Coalition’s supporters, as news of their victory in Sunday’s vote swept across Poland. Exit polls from the election displayed an appealing result, much to the delight of Eurocrats who’ve been closely following the developments with high anticipation.
For years, the Civic Coalition, Poland’s centrist opposition, had experienced a rather tense relationship with Brussels. However, with this turn of events, the message was clear and simple— Poland, the EU’s fifth-largest nation, was ready to reassert its position within the bloc.
The confidence within the EU circles has been bolstered by the fact that the Civic Coalition’s helm is under the guidance of former European Council chief, Donald Tusk. This comes at a time when Brussels had expressed great concerns over Poland’s election, though not explicitly for fear of seeming intrusive in national affairs.
For a while now, Poland and Hungary have been dubbed the ‘problem children’ of the EU, accused of disregarding EU’s democratic principles and progressively becoming EU-hostile. In response, Brussels responded by withholding billions of euros of funds from Poland for issues ranging from policy changes affecting women’s rights to threats to judicial and press independence.
Moreover, these countries have been associated with hindering the implementation of new EU-wide measures tackling migration and climate change. However, should the exit polls prove accurate, Brussels will be doubly pleased as this development seemingly counters the rising inclination towards the Eurosceptic hard-right in various parts of the bloc.
The Civic Coalition, despite facing an uphill task, has promised to redirect Poland back to the European mainstream, even as the entrenched conservative Law and Justice party poses particular challenges. Nevertheless, Margaritis Schinas, European Commission Vice-President, remains optimistic about the prospect of Poland as a strong pillar of the European family.
Interestingly, these developments also impact Russia, especially concerning its relationship with Ukraine. Given that Poland’s policies towards Russia were not expected to change post-election, their elevated position in the EU would provide an added advantage for Ukraine.
From a defensive perspective, NATO has been significantly less concerned about Poland’s election than the EU. Given its increased military activities following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland plays a crucial role in the alliance. Irrespective of changing political dynamics, NATO figures remain confident in Poland’s long-term support, as indicated by its significant defence budget equalling to 3% of its GDP, and its aspirations of becoming the strongest army in Europe by 2026.
Overall, the political atmosphere across Poland is one of hope and cautious optimism. The return of Poland to the European mainstream is not only crucial for the future of Poland but also holds significant implications for the broader European and global community. By fostering democratic norms and reinforcing their international commitments, Poland is poised to pave a fresh chapter in its history.
