Bloomberg Analyst Forecasts 95% Chance for Bitcoin ETF Approval


In a notable shift of sentiment, Eric Balchunas, a seasoned ETF analyst with Bloomberg, has substantially lowered the odds of a rejection by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF. Balchunas now asserts that the likelihood of a denial stands at a mere 5%. This revised stance comes amid global anticipation among cryptocurrency advocates for the SEC’s potential green light on a slate of Bitcoin spot ETF proposals, with eyes firmly set on Wednesday, January 10.

Certainty seems to be the theme as we inch closer to the SEC’s decision day. Back in October, Balchunas, alongside colleague James Seyffart, also of Bloomberg renown, assigned a 90% chance to the approval of a collaborative Bitcoin spot ETF venture proposed by ARK Invest and 21Shares. This date marked an impending final verdict from the SEC on their joint application.

Nevertheless, Balchunas has amplified optimism within the crypto sphere, upping previous forecasts dramatically. A recent social media update by Balchunas on January 6 nudged the probability of approval to a stunning 95%. He maintained a scant 5% chance for the SEC to overturn the ARK/21Shares ETF proposal in the imminent future.

Underpinning this fresh prognostication are several scenarios, largely deemed by the analyst community as improbable, that might otherwise impede or derail the approval process. James Seyffart explored these hypotheticals in a social media briefing, starting with the highly unlikely withdrawal of the ETF proposal by ARK/21Shares themselves.

Another conceivable obstacle could surface if the SEC were to uncover novel reasons to dismiss a cryptocurrency spot ETF launch, potentially prompting a protracted legal tussle with ARK/21Shares. However, Seyffart considers such an outcome as less preferred by the regulatory body, particularly in the wake of its conspicuous legal defeat to investment giant Grayscale.

The least likely deterrent, as per the Bloomberg analyst, would be a direct intervention by the US presidency—an eventuality that appears barely within the realms of possibility.

As the anticipated deadline of ARK/21Shares’ proposal comes closer, the expectation is that the SEC will opt for a blanket approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF applications, much like its previous strategy with the Ether-futures ETFs in August. Such a move is hinted at by the constructive dialogues and subsequent tweaks in the proposals following recent meetings between the applicants and the SEC—a sign many interpret as preparatory steps toward a collective blessing.

As we press on towards January 10, the crypto world watches with bated breath, hopeful for approval that could potentially trigger a positive surge in Bitcoin’s valuation. In the present moment, the world’s preeminent cryptocurrency remains buoyant at $44,050, reflecting a 4.50% climb over the preceding week.


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