Bitcoin’s Volatility to Halve by 2028, Forecasts Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan


In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, Matt Hougan, Chief Information Officer for Bitwise, recently shared his insightful forecasts about the course Bitcoin will take before its next ‘Halving’ event slotted for 2028. He elaborated on the multiple metamorphoses Bitcoin, the world’s premier cryptocurrency, is heading towards, emerging like a phoenix adorned with surprising features.

Hougan projects that the curve of Bitcoin’s volatility is set to descend by a whopping 50%. He reasons that the plunging volatility is likely to be fueled by the influx of neophytes into the Bitcoin arena through exchange-traded fund (ETF) marketplaces.

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He further elaborates that the Bitcoin terrain will soon be pulsating with a wide array of financial advisors, family-controlled businesses, and mammoth institutions. Their collective, unique investment patterns, such as steady-paced investments and portfolio rebalancing, may trigger counter-cyclical flows, thereby curtailing Bitcoin’s erratic behavior.

Hougan’s prognostications also throw light on alterations in Bitcoin portfolio allocations. His foresight reveals a future where setting aside a 5% portion for Bitcoin in target-date portfolios will become a norm. Hougan anticipates this trend to pick up traction with Bitcoin’s descending volatility making it a more desirable prospect for institutional investors.

The prescient CIO of Bitwise projects that Bitcoin ETFs will scoop up a staggering $200 billion in investment inflows, given their meteoric rise as the most rapidly expanding new ETF category.

Indicating that the ETF marketplace is yet in its nascent phase, with colossal institutions and national wirehouses still in the early stages of due diligence, Hougan draws an analogy with the ascent of gold ETFs. These enjoyed a consecutive annual surge in net flows, and he asserts that Bitcoin ETFs will follow suit.

In an exciting forecast, Hougan hints that prior to the upcoming Halving event, central banks might show their faith in Bitcoin, backing it with their resources. He reminds us that central banks have been stockpiling gold for time immemorial. He emphasizes that Bitcoin, as a non-debt money entity with an upper hand over gold in terms of settlements and payments, will ignite the interest of central banks.

A game theory component also comes into play. The adoption of Bitcoin as a reserve asset by a prominent central bank could be a defining moment for Bitcoin, possibly pushing its prices through the roof. Hougan queries: would one central bank try to pull ahead of the rest?

Perhaps the most remarkable prediction from Hougan centers around Bitcoin’s valuation. He anticipates Bitcoin’s value to soar above the $250,000 mark by 2028, a surge of almost 280% from its rate today.

Hougan enthuses about Bitcoin’s prior exponential growth, driven as it was from being merely a speculative entity to a practical, useful asset.

Contributing factors including falling volatility, escalated custody options, minimized correlation to traditional stocks, superior accessibility via ETFs, and expanding institutional adoption fuel his optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Hougan expresses his eagerness to witness Bitcoin enveloped in the mainstream, thanks to recently launched ETFs drawing investments and Wall Street heavyweights showing interest. He ponders that at $250,000, Bitcoin’s cumulative worth would touch an impressive $5 trillion.

At present, Bitcoin’s chart reveals a minor setback: it has seen nearly a 3% drop in the past 24 hours, trading at $64,500, after fluctuating around the $67,000 mark just last Tuesday but failing to maintain stability there.