A recent Quicktake analysis on the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant has drawn attention to the behavior of Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STH), which mirrors patterns observed in 2019. This analysis surfaces as Bitcoin struggles to climb above the $60,000 mark, adhering to the traditionally bearish trend seen in September.
CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain pointed out a noticeable “small peak” in Unspent Transaction Outputs (UXTOs) under six months, resembling a similar structure observed four years ago. According to the analyst, these UXTOs represent new investors or short-term holders who entered the market around March, coinciding with Bitcoin’s achievement of a fresh all-time high (ATH).
The analyst explained that the decreasing proportion of these UXTOs indicates that these investors either exited the market due to the volatility of Bitcoin prices since March or transitioned to long-term holders (UTXOs of six months and above). The accompanying chart showed a similar structure around the halving event in 2019, where Bitcoin reached a local high, only to see its price decline and take nearly 490 days to hit a new ATH. Avocado_onchain emphasized that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic also played a significant role during that period.
These insights offer clues into potential future trends for Bitcoin investors. Despite the current fluctuating prices, Avocado_onchain expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory. However, he advised investors to manage their expectations and keep a close eye on market developments in the short term.
While there is no clear indication of an imminent Bitcoin breakout, the analyst highlighted that historically, an influx of capital from new investors has driven price increases. Bitcoin’s previous ATH in March came after the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which injected new money into the ecosystem.
As September continues, Bitcoin seems to be following its historically bearish pattern. So far, the cryptocurrency is down by over 4% since the beginning of the month. Data from Coinglass indicates that September has generally been a challenging month for Bitcoin, with losses recorded in six out of the last seven Septembers dating back to 2017.
CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, projected that Bitcoin could average $55,000 by the end of the month. He noted that a drop below $56,000 could expose Bitcoin to a deeper price correction and an extended bearish phase.
The crypto community remains hopeful that the US Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for September 17 and 18. Such a move could potentially catalyze Bitcoin’s price, pushing it above $60,000.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $56,400, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The market is bracing for further developments as it eyes the forthcoming Federal Reserve decision and its potential implications for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
