Bitcoin whales appear to be offloading some of their holdings ahead of the closely contested 2024 US presidential election. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, there has been a 2% decrease in the number of wallet addresses holding 1,000 or more BTC. Martinez shared this information in a post on X, indicating that Bitcoin whales—those wallet addresses holding a significant amount of BTC—are “dialing back exposure” in anticipation of what promises to be a highly contentious election.
Since May, the number of Bitcoin whales peaked in mid-October when Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was seen as the overwhelming favorite to win. At the time of writing, Polymarket, a decentralized prediction markets platform, gives Trump a 62.7% chance of winning, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holds a 37.4% chance of becoming the next US president.
The move by Bitcoin whales to sell some of their holdings as the US prepares for the election could suggest a cautious approach, possibly aimed at mitigating potential price volatility associated with the election outcome. This selloff might indicate that Bitcoin whales anticipate a stricter regulatory environment for digital assets post-election. Such concerns may not be entirely unfounded, as the Biden administration has faced accusations of adopting a hostile stance toward the digital assets industry. Conversely, Trump has repeatedly pledged during his campaign to transform the US into the “crypto capital of the world.”
Adding to the whale selloff, long-term BTC holders also appear to be reducing their holdings. Recent analysis indicates that more than 177,000 BTC were sold by these long-term holders in the past seven days. Another scenario worth considering is that if whale addresses continue to decline without a corresponding drop in Bitcoin’s price, it could signal that retail investors are stepping up to purchase the digital asset.
Since September 2024, retail demand for Bitcoin has been on a steady uptrend. A recent report noted a 13% increase in retail demand for BTC over the past month, reflecting a shift in the market’s risk appetite from risk-off to risk-on. Martinez also highlighted Bitcoin’s TD sequential on the 12-hour chart, which is currently flashing a buy signal. For those unfamiliar, the TD sequential is a technical analysis indicator used to identify potential price exhaustion points and trend reversals in financial markets.
However, it’s important to note that a Trump victory alone may not be the silver bullet for Bitcoin’s fluctuating price. Maintaining the $68,000 support level is crucial to avoid a drop to $63,000. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $69,595, up 1.3% in the past 24 hours.
