Bitcoin Supply in Loss Surges to 20%, Potentially Signaling Price Rally

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On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s supply in loss has surged to nearly 20% following recent bearish movements in the coin’s price.

A post on X by CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr. highlighted a recent trend in the Bitcoin Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) Supply in Loss indicator. This metric measures the total percentage of UTXOs—essentially, Bitcoin tokens—currently held at a net unrealized loss. The indicator examines the on-chain history of each UTXO in circulation to determine its last movement price, assuming this value represents its cost basis. Whenever the cost basis of a UTXO is greater than Bitcoin’s current spot price, it is considered underwater. The UTXO Supply in Loss aggregates all UTXOs meeting this criterion to calculate the percentage of the total supply they represent. There is also a corresponding UTXO Supply in Profit metric that tracks the opposite.


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A chart shared by Adler illustrates the trend in the Bitcoin UTXO Supply in Loss throughout the cryptocurrency’s history. The data shows a steep decline to the zero mark when Bitcoin achieved its all-time high (ATH) earlier this year in March, an expected outcome as all investors gain profits during such peak periods. However, following recent bearish trends, the indicator’s value has surged again. The 90-day moving average (MA) of this metric is now nearing the 20% threshold. Previous instances of this level being retested have sometimes preceded a price rally, suggesting the potential for a similar price surge for Bitcoin.

The rise in UTXO Supply in Loss might be bullish for Bitcoin, as investors in profit are more likely to sell. Consequently, a reduction in their numbers diminishes the chances of a selloff.

Bitcoin briefly recovered past the $64,000 mark yesterday but has since retreated to around $62,500, indicating that the coin has struggled to sustain its recovery momentum.