Following the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price to $64,000, crypto analyst Rekt Capital is predicting a significant breakout move in the coming weeks. In a detailed video analysis, the analyst forecasted a substantial market movement around October 2024, drawing insights from historical precedents and current chart patterns.
Examining the weekly chart, Rekt Capital identified a downtrending channel, noting that BTC has been deviating below this channel over the past four weeks while searching for support to enable a price expansion above the channel’s bottom. This deviation has resulted in what the analyst describes as a “fantastic recovery,” indicating the potential for Bitcoin to return to the channel top at approximately $67,000 in the near future.
“The rebound from the channel bottom is crucial as it has historically taken price from the channel bottom to the top in approximately two weeks on average,” explained Rekt Capital. The importance of weekly candle closes above specific levels, particularly at $67,500 and eventually at $71,500, was emphasized, as these would mark a break from the reaccumulation range high established post-halving.
Rekt Capital elaborated on the consistent pattern of bouncing from the channel bottom to the top, which has typically spanned an average of two weeks. However, the analyst observed a potentially elongated consolidation phase at these lower levels, suggesting that while the rebound trajectory follows historical patterns, the consolidation at lower prices could provide investors with bargain buying opportunities.
Focusing on the technical thresholds, Rekt Capital underscored the necessity of several weekly candle closes above pivotal price points. A close above $66,000 would reconfirm the reaccumulation range’s lower boundary as a newfound support, paving the way for further upward movement. More importantly, a decisive weekly close above $67,500 would signify a breach of the persistent lower highs trend that has prevailed since March of this year.
“The weekly close above these specific levels is not merely a technical achievement but a psychological victory for market participants, indicating a weakening of sell-side pressure and a regain of bullish momentum,” noted Rekt Capital.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to initiate major rallies approximately 150 to 160 days following a halving event. Drawing parallels from the post-halving periods of 2016 and 2020, the analyst suggested that similar conditions are currently forming, with Bitcoin being around 133 days post the latest halving.
“This cyclical observation aligns well with the current market dynamics, where Bitcoin is methodically testing and, in some cases, breaching important technical barriers,” he remarked. This analysis is based not only on temporal patterns but also on the qualitative nature of market behavior during these periods.
A key point of discussion was the 21-week EMA, an indicator often regarded as the bull market barometer. Rekt Capital highlighted its historical significance, noting, “Deviations below the 21-week EMA in bull markets typically offer lucrative buying opportunities, as seen in the 2021 cycle. Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around this EMA, providing mixed signals that require vigilant interpretation.”
Looking forward, the analyst projected that for Bitcoin to embark on a new parabolic phase leading to price discovery and potentially new all-time highs, it must first consolidate above the $71,500 level, representing the reaccumulation range high. This level has previously acted as formidable resistance, and a weekly close above it would likely catalyze a major bullish phase.
“In the coming weeks, the market’s ability to uphold these critical supports and break through resistance levels with conviction will be paramount. This will determine the feasibility of a breakout aligning with historical patterns observed post-halving,” Rekt Capital concluded, suggesting that October could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,956.
