Bitcoin Rebounds 3% but Faces Short-Term Challenges Ahead

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Cryptocurrencies rebounded on Tuesday with bitcoin climbing nearly 3% to around $58,000 as fears from last week’s breakdown dissipated. The recovery was broad-based, with the market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index up 2.4% over the past 24 hours, led by gains by solana, filecoin, and native tokens of Avalanche and Internet Computer Protocol.

The grind higher could persist with bitcoin potentially reaching $60,000, but the rally will likely be short-lived, said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. “The $55,000-$56,000 range is forming a base from a technical analysis perspective. However, given the medium-term technical damage, we anticipate no more than a short-term tactical bullish countertrend rally,” Thielen stated in a Tuesday market update. He further elaborated, “We anticipate Bitcoin could rally back to nearly $60,000 before experiencing another decline to the low $50,000 range, creating a complex trading environment.”

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Seasonal trends are not lending support to bitcoin either, with the third quarter historically offering the weakest returns, noted Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, on Tuesday. This weak seasonality coincides with the German state of Saxony selling seized assets and the ongoing distribution of Mt. Gox refunds, which are impacting prices.

According to K33 Research’s estimates, the market will have to absorb 75,000 to 118,000 BTC of selling from Saxony and Mt. Gox customers throughout the summer, worth $4.3 billion to $6.8 billion at current prices. “We expect these flows to burden performance in the months to come and the choppy market conditions to last until October,” Lunde remarked.